Match Info

Top 14 - Round 5

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Pierre-Fabre (Castres)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Rugby
World	TOP 14 Rugby TV


	Castres		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	1.5	21	2.7
	1.54	22	2.5
	1.49	23.2	2.8	Watch
	1.45	21	2.65
	1.45	17	2.85
	1.47	22	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.48 ↓ (3.16)	21.03 ↑ (18.28)	2.71 ↑ (1.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Castres
61.8%

Draw
4.4%

Toulouse
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.6%

5.1%

65.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Castres has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+32.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Castres's performance.

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-31.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Toulouse might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Castres - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Castres will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Toulouse (2.62) (votes: 83%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 31:25

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Walcker Q.	1. Bertrand B.
2. Durand T.	2. Lacombre T.
3. Corato N.	3. Rapetti T.
4. Ducat G.	4. Bonnard J.
5. Vanverberghe F.	5. Merkler J.
6. Delaporte B. (C)	6. Cros F. (C)
7. Ringuet K.	7. Kouassi M.
8. Watson H.	8. Roumat A.
9. Arata S.	9. Graou P.
10. Le Brun L.	10. Mallia J.
11. Baget R.	11. Lebel M.
12. Goodhue J.	12. Amati L.
13. Botitu V.	13. Menoncello T.
14. Ambadiang C.	14. Nemor J.
15. Chabouni T.	15. Remue M.
Substitutes
16. Colonna P.	16. Marchand J.
17. Galisson L.	17. Neti R.
18. Gabriel F.	18. Elias E.
19. Papalii A.	19. Ntamack T.
20. Fernandez J.	20. Daroque S.
21. Vidal T.	21. Capuozzo A.
22. Cocagi A.	22. Pucciariello B.
23. Chilachava L.	23. Colombe Reazel G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 8)
15', Mallia J. (Penalty Goal),
24', Lebel M. (Try),
24', Mallia J. (Missed Conversion),
25', Merkler J. 🟨,
2nd Half (7 - 0)
45', Vanverberghe F. (Try),
45', Le Brun L. (Conversion Goal),
51', Mallia J. 🟨,

Preview

A competitive mid-table side looks to challenge an upper-table opponent (ranked 10th and 1st in the Promotion - Top 14 Playoffs - Semi - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Castres won 1.

A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Castres holding a narrow advantage.

Our forecast points to a victory for Castres in today's match, at odds of 1.53.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Castres has recorded 11 wins, 1 draw, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 443:534 (averaging 22.2:26.7 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Castres against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 280:211 goals (averaging 28:21.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
1	Stade Toulousain	5	4	0	1	152:90	19
12	Castres Olympique	5	2	0	3	100:118	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Castres Olympique
French Top 14
26.09.26	Clermont - Castres	20:6 ✺
19.09.26	Castres - Toulon	29:27 ✺
12.09.26	Perpignan - Castres	43:29 ✺
05.09.26	Castres - Vannes	29:20 ✺
06.06.26	Castres - Toulon	38:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWW
- Stade Toulousain
French Top 14
27.09.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	40:18 ✺
19.09.26	Vannes - Toulouse	23:29 ✺
13.09.26	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	48:12 ✺
06.09.26	La Rochelle - Toulouse	30:27 ✺
27.06.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	28:20 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
18.04.26	Castres - Toulouse	25:42
27.09.25	Toulouse - Castres	59:12
26.04.25	Toulouse - Castres	52:6
05.10.24	Castres - Toulouse	28:23
02.03.24	Toulouse - Castres	33:6
18.11.23	Castres - Toulouse	31:23
25.03.23	Castres - Toulouse	27:17

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