Match Info

Challenge Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport Rugby
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Nigeria	SuperSport Rugby
South-africa	SuperSport Rugby
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Montpellier		Connacht

	1	X	2
	1.13	34	6
	1.11	30	6.2
	1.12	33.19	6.75	Watch
	1.11	34	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.12 ↓ (1.13)	32.8 ↑ (30.52)	6.24 ↓ (6.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-16)

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Montpellier
82.4%

Draw
2.8%

Connacht
14.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

82.2%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Connacht has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Montpellier - Connacht Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 36:20

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Erdocio B.	1. Bohan B.
2. Tolofua C.	2. Tierney-Martin D.
3. Haouas M.	3. Illo S.
4. Verhaeghe F.	4. Joyce J.
5. Duguid T.	5. Murray D.
6. Camara Y.	6. Prendergast C. (C)
7. Becognee A.	7. Hurley-Langton S.
8. Vunipola V. (C)	8. Boyle P.
9. Price A.	9. Devine M.
10. Miotti H.	10. Naughton S.
11. Echegaray J.	11. Mullins C.
12. Anyanwu L.	12. Aki B.
13. Cadot A.	13. Forde C.
14. Taofifenua D.	14. Bolton S.
15. Banks T.	15. Gilbert S.
Substitutes
16. Akrab L.	16. Victory M.
17. Forletta E.	17. Dooley P.
18. Welsch V.	18. Aungier J.
19. Tauleigne M.	19. Murphy J.
20. Nouchi L.	20. O'Brien S.
21. Rates M.	21. Murphy B.
22. Vincent T.	22. Carty J.
23. Vincent A.	23. Devine J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (26 - 8)
4', Gilbert S. (Penalty Goal),
6', Tierney-Martin D. 🟨,
7', (Penalty Try),
7', Hurley-Langton S. 🟨,
15', Tolofua C. (Try),
16', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
19', Tierney-Martin D. (Try),
28', Bolton S. 🟨,
29', Haouas M. (Try),
37', Miotti H. (Try),
38', Miotti H. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (19 - 14)
46', Naughton S. (Try),
46', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
53', Cadot A. (Try),
54', Vincent T. (Conversion Goal),
56', Akrab L. 🟨,
70', Price A. (Try),
71', Vincent T. (Conversion Goal),
77', Aungier J. (Try),
77', Gilbert S. (Conversion Goal),
80', Welsch V. (Try),

Preview

In recent matches, Montpellier has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Connacht is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Montpellier may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Connacht has had a series of home games.

In this match, Montpellier is the clear favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Montpellier won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 88:83. (average 29.3:27.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Montpellier won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 68:60. (average 34:30).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Montpellier Hérault RC
Challenge Cup Rugby
04.04.26	Montpellier - Perpignan	0:28 ✺
French Top 14
28.03.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	45:29 ✺
21.03.26	Clermont - Montpellier	17:20 ✺
28.02.26	Montpellier - Racing Métro	41:17 ✺
14.02.26	La Rochelle - Montpellier	33:43 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.6 LLWWW
- Connacht Rugby
Challenge Cup Rugby
03.04.26	Connacht - Sharks	29:12 ✺
United Rugby Championship
28.03.26	Connacht - Ospreys	21:14 ✺
20.03.26	Ulster - Connacht	19:26 ✺
13.03.26	Connacht - Llanelli Scarlets	31:14 ✺
28.02.26	Connacht - Glasgow Warriors	15:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Challenge Cup Rugby
11.01.26	Montpellier - Connacht	33:31
European Rugby Champions Cup
19.01.20	Montpellier - Connacht	35:29
17.11.19	Connacht - Montpellier	23:20

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