Match Info
Premiership Rugby - Round 4Date: 19 October 2025, SundayLocation: Sandy Park (Exeter)Referee: Dickson K. (Eng)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Australia | Stan Sport |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 6, Oneplay |
 Slovakia | Voyo |
 United-kingdom | Discovery+, FloSports app, TNT Sports 1 |
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Exeter Chiefs |
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Harlequins |
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- The most likely Over/Under: 51.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)
- The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Exeter Chiefs
66.1% | Draw
4.1% | Harlequins
29.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Exeter Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Exeter Chiefs's performance.Harlequins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Harlequins might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter Chiefs than the current prediction. (-7.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Exeter Chiefs that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harlequins than the current prediction. (+6.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Harlequins could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Predictions
Users Predictions:
2 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 2 - 100%). Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Exeter (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:24 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
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1.  Goodrick-Clarke W.
| 1. Baxter F.
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2.  Dweba J.
| 2. Walker J.
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3.  Iosefa-Scott J.
| 3. Williams H.
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4.  Jenkins D. (C)
| 4.  Petti G.
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5. Tuima R.
| 5. Lewies S.
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6.  Hooper T.
| 6. Kenningham J.
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7. Roots E.
| 7. Evans W.
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8. Fisilau G.
| 8. Cunningham-South C.
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9.  Varney S.
| 9. Porter W.
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10. Skinner H.
| 10. Smith M.
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11. Brown-Bampoe P.
| 11. Murley C. (C)
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12. Ikitau L.
| 12. Benson J.
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13. Slade H.
| 13. Northmore L.
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14. Feyi-Waboso I.
| 14. Isgro R.
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15. Hodge J.
| 15. Green T.
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| Substitutes |
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16. Yeandle J.
| 16.  Turner G.
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17. Sio S.
| 17. Wenger B.
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18.  Tchumbadze B.
| 18. Delgado P.
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19. Zambonin A.
| 19.  Treadwell K.
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20. Pearson L.
| 20. Carr Z.
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21. James K.
| 21. Browne H.
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22. Chapman C.
| 22. Townsend S.
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23. Hammersley B.
| 23. Anderson C.
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| Coaches |
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. Baxter R.
| . Gilmore J.
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (24 - 0)
- 3', Slade H. (Penalty Goal),
- 21', Goodrick-Clarke W. ↓, Sio S. ↑,
- 26', Feyi-Waboso I. (Try),
- 27', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
- 28', Slade H. (Try),
- 29', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
- 34', Cunningham-South C. ↓, Carr Z. ↑,
- 35', Skinner H. (Try),
- 35', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
- 2nd Half (14 - 0)
- 43', Fisilau G. (Try),
- 44', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
- 51', Dweba J. ↓, Yeandle J. ↑,
- 51', Iosefa-Scott J. ↓, Tchumbadze B. ↑,
- 51', Walker J. ↓, Turner G. ↑,
- 51', Williams H. ↓, Delgado P. ↑,
- 51', Lewies S. ↓, Treadwell K. ↑,
- 53', Tuima R. ↓, Zambonin A. ↑,
- 54', Porter W. ↓, Townsend S. ↑,
- 56', Tchumbadze B. 🟨,
- 60', Baxter F. ↓, Wenger B. ↑,
- 60', Northmore L. ↓, Anderson C. ↑,
- 63', Petti G. ↓, Browne H. ↑,
- 66', Hooper T. ↓, Iosefa-Scott J. ↑,
- 66', Ikitau L. ↓, Hammersley B. ↑,
- 67', Iosefa-Scott J. ↓, Hooper T. ↑,
- 67', Hooper T. ↓, Pearson L. ↑,
- 68', Murley C. 🟨,
- 68', Fisilau G. ↓, James K. ↑,
- 73', Woodburn O. ↓, Chapman C. ↑,
- 75', Evans W. ↓, Petti G. ↑,
- 76', Browne H. 🟨,
- 79', Slade H. (Try),
- 80', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
Preview
A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup)In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 1.Exeter has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).Harlequins has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).Harlequins may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.Recently, Exeter has had a series of away games. In this match, Exeter is seen as the favorite.We predict that Exeter will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 547:513. (average 27.4:25.7).Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 366:322. (average 30.5:26.8).
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Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| English Premiership Rugby | | | 18.05.25 | Harlequins - Exeter Chiefs | 24:22 | | 27.10.24 | Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins | 19:36 | | 11.05.24 | Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins | 58:26 | | 22.10.23 | Harlequins - Exeter Chiefs | 22:14 | | 04.03.23 | Harlequins - Exeter Chiefs | 40:5 | | 25.09.22 | Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins | 38:42 | | 04.06.22 | Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins | 47:38 |
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