Match Info

Premiership Rugby - Round 4

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Sandy Park (Exeter)

Referee: Dickson K. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Stan Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Slovakia	Voyo
United-kingdom	Discovery+, FloSports app, TNT Sports 1


	Exeter Chiefs		Harlequins

	1	X	2
	1.44	21	2.88
	1.4	25	3
	1.33	28.38	3.41	Watch
	1.45	19	3.1	Watch
	1.4	21	3.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.4 ↓ (1.54)	22.88 ↑ (20)	3.11 ↑ (2.59)

The most likely Over/Under: 51.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Exeter Chiefs
66.1%

Draw
4.1%

Harlequins
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.8%

4.6%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.5%

4.7%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Exeter Chiefs has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Exeter Chiefs's performance.

Harlequins has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Harlequins might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Exeter Chiefs than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Exeter Chiefs that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harlequins than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Harlequins could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Exeter will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Exeter (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 28:24

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Goodrick-Clarke W.	1. Baxter F.
2. Dweba J.	2. Walker J.
3. Iosefa-Scott J.	3. Williams H.
4. Jenkins D. (C)	4. Petti G.
5. Tuima R.	5. Lewies S.
6. Hooper T.	6. Kenningham J.
7. Roots E.	7. Evans W.
8. Fisilau G.	8. Cunningham-South C.
9. Varney S.	9. Porter W.
10. Skinner H.	10. Smith M.
11. Brown-Bampoe P.	11. Murley C. (C)
12. Ikitau L.	12. Benson J.
13. Slade H.	13. Northmore L.
14. Feyi-Waboso I.	14. Isgro R.
15. Hodge J.	15. Green T.
Substitutes
16. Yeandle J.	16. Turner G.
17. Sio S.	17. Wenger B.
18. Tchumbadze B.	18. Delgado P.
19. Zambonin A.	19. Treadwell K.
20. Pearson L.	20. Carr Z.
21. James K.	21. Browne H.
22. Chapman C.	22. Townsend S.
23. Hammersley B.	23. Anderson C.
Coaches
. Baxter R.	. Gilmore J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (24 - 0)
3', Slade H. (Penalty Goal),
21', Goodrick-Clarke W. ↓, Sio S. ↑,
26', Feyi-Waboso I. (Try),
27', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
28', Slade H. (Try),
29', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
34', Cunningham-South C. ↓, Carr Z. ↑,
35', Skinner H. (Try),
35', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (14 - 0)
43', Fisilau G. (Try),
44', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),
51', Dweba J. ↓, Yeandle J. ↑,
51', Iosefa-Scott J. ↓, Tchumbadze B. ↑,
51', Walker J. ↓, Turner G. ↑,
51', Williams H. ↓, Delgado P. ↑,
51', Lewies S. ↓, Treadwell K. ↑,
53', Tuima R. ↓, Zambonin A. ↑,
54', Porter W. ↓, Townsend S. ↑,
56', Tchumbadze B. 🟨,
60', Baxter F. ↓, Wenger B. ↑,
60', Northmore L. ↓, Anderson C. ↑,
63', Petti G. ↓, Browne H. ↑,
66', Hooper T. ↓, Iosefa-Scott J. ↑,
66', Ikitau L. ↓, Hammersley B. ↑,
67', Iosefa-Scott J. ↓, Hooper T. ↑,
67', Hooper T. ↓, Pearson L. ↑,
68', Murley C. 🟨,
68', Fisilau G. ↓, James K. ↑,
73', Woodburn O. ↓, Chapman C. ↑,
75', Evans W. ↓, Petti G. ↑,
76', Browne H. 🟨,
79', Slade H. (Try),
80', Slade H. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

A great opportunity to watch a clash of neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ European Rugby Champions Cup)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 1.

Exeter has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Harlequins has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Harlequins may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Exeter has had a series of away games.

In this match, Exeter is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Exeter will win today's game, with odds of 1.39.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Exeter won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 547:513. (average 27.4:25.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Exeter won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 366:322. (average 30.5:26.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Exeter Chiefs
English Premiership Rugby
11.10.25	Bristol Rugby - Exeter Chiefs	18:14 ✺
04.10.25	Exeter Chiefs - Newcastle Red Bulls	38:15 ✺
28.09.25	Northampton Saints - Exeter Chiefs	33:33 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
20.09.25	Bath - Exeter Chiefs	14:23 ✺
12.09.25	Gloucester - Exeter Chiefs	29:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWTWL
- Harlequin FC
English Premiership Rugby
12.10.25	Harlequins - Saracens	20:14 ✺
04.10.25	Leicester Tigers - Harlequins	29:19 ✺
26.09.25	Harlequins - Bath	31:47 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
19.09.25	Harlequins - Leicester Tigers	17:25 ✺
12.09.25	Newcastle Red Bulls - Harlequins	26:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

English Premiership Rugby
18.05.25	Harlequins - Exeter Chiefs	24:22
27.10.24	Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins	19:36
11.05.24	Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins	58:26
22.10.23	Harlequins - Exeter Chiefs	22:14
04.03.23	Harlequins - Exeter Chiefs	40:5
25.09.22	Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins	38:42
04.06.22	Exeter Chiefs - Harlequins	47:38

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