Match Info

Date: 25 October 2026, Sunday


	Harlequins		Saracens

	1	X	2
	2.88	21	1.44
	3.05	24	1.39
	2.99	22	1.42	Watch
	3.24	20	1.37	Watch
	3.05	24	1.39
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↓ (3.17)	22.2 ↑ (20)	1.4 ↑ (1.39)

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harlequins
30.2%

Draw
4.1%

Saracens
65.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

29.1%

4.6%

66.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.1%

4.8%

64.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harlequins has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Saracens has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Harlequins than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Saracens than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

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Preview

A lower-table team faces a stern test hosting a top-ranking contender (ranked 10th and 3rd in the Promotion - Premiership Rugby Playoffs - Semi - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Harlequins won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Saracens could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Saracens for this game.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Harlequins has recorded 7 wins, 0 draws, and 13 losses, with a goal aggregate of 470:584 (averaging 23.5:29.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Harlequins against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, with 263:271 goals (averaging 26.3:27.1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
3	Saracens	3	2	0	1	87:66	11
10	Harlequins	3	0	0	3	41:109	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harlequin FC
Challenge Cup Rugby
18.10.26	Harlequins - Vannes	57:19 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
11.10.26	Sale Sharks - Harlequins	28:24 ✺
03.10.26	Gloucester - Harlequins	48:0 ✺
25.09.26	Harlequins - Bath	17:33 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
12.09.26	Harlequins - Northampton Saints	29:14 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WLLLW
- Saracens FC
European Rugby Champions Cup
17.10.26	Connacht - Saracens	45:36 ✺
English Premiership Rugby
10.10.26	Saracens - Bristol Rugby	30:7 ✺
04.10.26	Saracens - Sale Sharks	17:21 ✺
27.09.26	Leicester Tigers - Saracens	38:40 ✺
English Premiership Rugby Cup
05.09.26	Saracens - Northampton Saints	96:42 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English Premiership Rugby
30.05.26	Saracens - Harlequins	26:12
English Premiership Rugby Cup
07.02.26	Saracens - Harlequins	40:43
16.11.25	Harlequins - Saracens	21:46
English Premiership Rugby
12.10.25	Harlequins - Saracens	20:14
22.03.25	Saracens - Harlequins	12:23
English Premiership Rugby Cup
15.02.25	Harlequins - Saracens	29:30
23.11.24	Saracens - Harlequins	28:26

Harlequins - Saracens: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide