What is the expert prediction for Mont-De-Marsan vs Brive?

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Mont-De-Marsan vs Brive Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, January 30, 2026)

Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 19

Date: 30 January 2026, Friday


	Mont-De-Marsan		Brive

	1	X	2
	2.5	21	1.57
	2.46	21	1.57
	2.47	20.24	1.61	Watch
	2.5	19	1.57
	2.65	23	1.51
	2.66	26	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.54 ↑ (2.29)	21.71 ↑ (18.17)	1.56 ↓ (1.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 44.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mont-De-Marsan
36.4%

Draw
4.3%

Brive
59.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

5.1%

54.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

5.3%

52.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mont-De-Marsan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Brive has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Brive's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mont-De-Marsan than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mont-De-Marsan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brive than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Brive, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Mont-De-Marsan (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 23:23

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (6 - 3)
2nd Half (14 - 0)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mont-De-Marsan won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Brive could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Mont-De-Marsan won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 147:200. (average 21:28.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Mont-De-Marsan won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 74:47. (average 24.7:15.7).

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Standings

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
5	CA Brive	25	14	1	10	718:517	69

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mont-De-Marsan
French Pro D2
23.01.26	Nevers - Mont-De-Marsan	29:26 ✺
16.01.26	Mont-De-Marsan - Valence Romans Drôme	18:13 ✺
09.01.26	Vannes - Mont-De-Marsan	47:29 ✺
19.12.25	Mont-De-Marsan - Provence Rugby	25:23 ✺
12.12.25	Stade Aurillacois - Mont-De-Marsan	32:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWLWL
- CA Brive
French Pro D2
23.01.26	Brive - Béziers	43:6 ✺
17.01.26	Vannes - Brive	35:7 ✺
09.01.26	Brive - Biarritz	61:22 ✺
19.12.25	Nevers - Brive	33:31 ✺
12.12.25	Brive - Carcassonne	53:16 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
07.11.25	Brive - Mont-De-Marsan	68:10
07.03.25	Brive - Mont-De-Marsan	33:20
27.09.24	Mont-De-Marsan - Brive	33:11
28.03.24	Mont-De-Marsan - Brive	22:22
01.12.23	Brive - Mont-De-Marsan	23:16
31.03.19	Brive - Mont-De-Marsan	29:27
29.11.18	Mont-De-Marsan - Brive	19:14

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