Match Info

League One - Round 17

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Komazawa Stadium (Tokyo)


	Ricoh Black Rams		Kubota Spears

	1	X	2
	3.35	22	1.34
	3.38	22.64	1.36
	3.3	21	1.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (3.2)	21.88 ↑ (20.8)	1.34 ↓ (1.4)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ricoh Black Rams
27.5%

Draw
4.2%

Kubota Spears
68.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.1%

4.5%

66.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.2%

4.8%

62.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ricoh Black Rams has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Kubota Spears has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ricoh Black Rams than the current prediction. (+3.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kubota Spears than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kubota Spears, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 33)
2nd Half (5 - 19)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Black Rams won 0.

In recent matches, Black Rams has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Kubota is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Black Rams may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Kubota is considered a favorite.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Black Rams won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 157:228. (average 19.6:28.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Black Rams won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 57:90. (average 14.3:22.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ricoh Black Rams
Japan League One Rugby Union
26.04.26	Ricoh Black Rams - Toyota Verblitz	28:40 ✺
17.04.26	Honda Heat - Ricoh Black Rams	5:49 ✺
05.04.26	Ricoh Black Rams - Kobe Steel Kobelco Steelers	19:40 ✺
29.03.26	Ricoh Black Rams - Mitsubishi Sagamihara DynaBoars	33:7 ✺
21.03.26	Panasonic Wild Knights - Ricoh Black Rams	31:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWLWL
- Kubota Spears
Japan League One Rugby Union
25.04.26	Kubota Spears - Honda Heat	54:21 ✺
18.04.26	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Kubota Spears	22:27 ✺
04.04.26	Toyota Verblitz - Kubota Spears	24:7 ✺
27.03.26	Kubota Spears - Toshiba Brave Lupus	51:7 ✺
21.03.26	Urayasu D-Rocks - Kubota Spears	35:59 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan League One Rugby Union
20.12.25	Kubota Spears - Ricoh Black Rams	50:28
06.04.25	Ricoh Black Rams - Kubota Spears	14:42
17.01.25	Kubota Spears - Ricoh Black Rams	26:18
26.01.24	Ricoh Black Rams - Kubota Spears	17:18
29.01.23	Kubota Spears - Ricoh Black Rams	40:38
14.12.18	Ricoh Black Rams - Kubota Spears	26:30
06.10.18	Kubota Spears - Ricoh Black Rams	22:16

Ricoh Black Rams - Kubota Spears: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide