Match Info
World Rugby Nations Cup - Round 1Date: 4 July 2026, SaturdayWhere to Watch on TV: | |
|---|
Australia | Stan Sport |
New-zealand | Sky Sport Select |
Romania | TVR Sport |
International | RugbyPass TV |
|
 |
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 |
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Samoa |
|
Hong Kong |
|
|
1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.02 |
50 |
10.5 |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.02 ↓ (1.04) |
50 ↑ (22) |
10.5 ↓ (12) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 58.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-26)
- The best margin for this event is 9.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Samoa 89.5% | Draw 1.8% | Hong Kong 8.7% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Samoa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Hong Kong has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)Samoa - Hong Kong Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 42:16 
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Lineups
| Starting Lineups |
|---|
1. Seiuli A.
| 1. Cinnamond R.
|
2. Boyle-Tiatia M.
| 2. Baron H.
|
3. Fepulea'i M.
| 3. Chapman K.
|
4. Nee-Nee B.
| 4. Murphy M.
|
5. Slade S.
| 5. Sullivan K.
|
6. Faiilagi M.
| 6. McNutt T.
|
7. Motuga A.
| 7. MacKinlay-West P.
|
8. Petelo-Mapu I.
| 8. Sawyer J.
|
9. Lam J.
| 9. Combes J.
|
10. Alatimu A. M.
| 10. Barker J.
|
11. Tuitama T.
| 11. Sayers H.
|
12. Umaga-Jensen P.
| 12. Avitabile M.
|
13. Paiaaua D.
| 13. Threlkeld M.
|
14. Solomona W.
| 14. Ramage M.
|
15. Ah Kiong L.
| 15. Altier P.
|
| Substitutes |
|---|
16. Anae P.
| 16. Post A.
|
17. Adams J.
| 17. Holmes J.
|
18. Toomaga-Allen J.
| 18. Fameitau S.
|
19. Pomale-Time T.
| 19. Doheny L.
|
20. Jones N.
| 20. Fourie D.
|
21. Tupai C.
| 21. Wai E.
|
22. Niulevaea T.
| 22. Campbell-Wu I.
|
23. Alofipo E.
| 23. Worley M.
|
Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (38 - 7)
- 1', Tuitama T. (Try),
- 2', Alatimu A. M. (Conversion Goal),
- 8', Seiuli A. (Try),
- 9', Alatimu A. M. (Conversion Goal),
- 17', Faiilagi M. (Try),
- 18', Alatimu A. M. (Missed Conversion),
- 20', Solomona W. (Try),
- 20', Alatimu A. M. (Conversion Goal),
- 23', Baron H. ↓, Post A. ↑,
- 28', Lam J. 🟨,
- 28', (Penalty Try),
- 31', Boyle-Tiatia M. (Try),
- 32', Alatimu A. M. (Conversion Goal),
- 36', Solomona W. (Try),
- 39', Alatimu A. M. (Missed Conversion),
- 40', Barker J. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (28 - 12)
- 42', Ramage M. (Try),
- 43', Altier P. (Conversion Goal),
- 51', Murphy M. ↓, Doheny L. ↑,
- 51', Faiilagi M. ↓, Jones N. ↑,
- 51', Lam J. ↓, Tupai C. ↑,
- 51', Fepulea'i M. ↓, Toomaga-Allen J. ↑,
- 51', Boyle-Tiatia M. ↓, Anae P. ↑,
- 51', Seiuli A. ↓, Adams J. ↑,
- 57', Sayers H. (Try),
- 58', Altier P. (Missed Conversion),
- 61', Chapman K. ↓, Fameitau S. ↑,
- 61', Petelo-Mapu I. (Try),
- 62', Alatimu A. M. (Conversion Goal),
- 62', Toomaga-Allen J. ↓, Fepulea'i M. ↑,
- 62', Barker J. ↓, Worley M. ↑,
- 63', Nee-Nee B. ↓, Pomale-Time T. ↑,
- 63', Paiaaua D. ↓, Alofipo E. ↑,
- 64', Tupai C. (Try),
- 65', Alatimu A. M. (Conversion Goal),
- 66', Tuitama T. ↓, Niulevaea T. ↑,
- 66', Ramage M. ↓, Campbell-Wu I. ↑,
- 68', Combes J. ↓, Wai E. ↑,
- 73', Sawyer J. ↓, Fourie D. ↑,
- 77', Alofipo E. (Try),
- 77', Alatimu A. M. (Conversion Goal),
- 79', (Try),
- 80', (Conversion Goal),
Preview
In this match, Samoa is the undisputed favorite. Recently, there has been no match between the teams.
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;