Match Info

Top 14 - Round 2

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Mayol (Toulon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Czech-republic	CANAL+ Sport 2
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
Germany	More Than Sports TV
Mexico	Disney+
Peru	Movistar Deportes
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN 2
Spain	M+ Deportes
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player


	Toulon		La Rochelle

	1	X	2
	1.2	26	4.75
	1.24	17.5	4.2
	1.25	25	3.95
	1.27	25.19	4.08	Watch
	1.18	34	4.8
	1.23	21	4.26
	1.23	29	4.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.23 ↓ (1.44)	25.38 ↑ (20.78)	4.32 ↑ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 61.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-11)

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Toulon
75%

Draw
3.6%

La Rochelle
21.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.9%

4.5%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toulon's performance.

La Rochelle has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and La Rochelle might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Toulon - La Rochelle Predictions

New Consensus by Tipsters:

AH +11.5 - La Rochelle (1.85) (votes: 86%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 37:26

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ametlla L.	1. Kaddouri A.
2. Baubigny T.	2. Bourgarit P.
3. Sinckler K.	3. Sorin K.
4. Rebbadj S.	4. Kante-Samba C.
5. Cancoriet J.	5. Adelaide T.
6. Ludlam L.	6. Botia L.
7. Abadie E.	7. Boudehent P.
8. Mercer Z.	8. Haddad M.
9. Serin B.	9. Bouju V.
10. Garcia M.	10. Hastoy A.
11. Ferte M.	11. Bollengier N.
12. Fickou G. (C)	12. Daunivucu S.
13. Jones H.	13. Seuteni U.
14. Rebbadj R.	14. Nowell J.
15. Jaminet M.	15. Leyds D. (C)
Substitutes
16. Damond P.	16. Lespiaucq-Brettes Q.
17. Gros J.	17. Penverne L.
18. Kpoku J.	18. Lavault T.
19. Tuifua P.	19. Waqanisaravi W.
20. Shioshvili M.	20. Alldritt G.
21. White B.	21. Timo A.
22. Sinzelle J.	22. Elissalde S.
23. Slimani R.	23. Kuntelia A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (13 - 11)
5', Hastoy A. (Penalty Goal),
9', Garcia M. (Try),
9', Botia L. 🟨,
13', Nowell J. (Try),
16', Ferte M. (Try),
19', Hastoy A. (Penalty Goal),
40+2', Jaminet M. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (7 - 10)
46', Waqanisaravi W. (Try),
46', Hastoy A. (Conversion Goal),
51', Serin B. (Try),
51', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
53', Hastoy A. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulon won 2.

In this match, Toulon is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulon won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 392:490. (average 19.6:24.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulon won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 256:196. (average 25.6:19.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
4	Stade Rochelais	6	4	0	2	144:135	18
10	RC Toulonnais	6	2	0	4	130:130	12

Last Results with these Odds

La Rochelle - the odds 3.06 are the expected chance of winning is 30.56%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Toulonnais
French Top 14
05.09.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulon	27:26 ✺
06.06.26	Castres - Toulon	38:21 ✺
31.05.26	Toulon - Bordeaux Bègles	27:22 ✺
16.05.26	Racing Métro - Toulon	43:28 ✺
09.05.26	Toulon - Toulouse	27:51 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 LLWLL
- La Rochelle
French Top 14
06.09.26	La Rochelle - Toulouse	30:27 ✺
14.06.26	Stade Français - La Rochelle	45:5 ✺
06.06.26	La Rochelle - Stade Français	27:22 ✺
30.05.26	Montauban - La Rochelle	15:71 ✺
17.05.26	La Rochelle - Toulouse	38:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
04.01.26	La Rochelle - Toulon	66:0
08.11.25	Toulon - La Rochelle	39:14
26.01.25	Toulon - La Rochelle	45:26
08.09.24	La Rochelle - Toulon	19:15
15.06.24	Toulon - La Rochelle	29:34
28.04.24	La Rochelle - Toulon	27:17
27.01.24	Toulon - La Rochelle	25:23

Upcoming Matches