Match Info

Top 14 - Round 23

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Stade Mayol (Toulon)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports Player, Premier Sports Rugby


	Toulon		Toulouse

	1	X	2
	2.88	21	1.44
	2.85	24	1.43
	3.06	22.98	1.44	Watch
	2.83	30	1.44
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.91 ↑ (2.42)	24.5 ↑ (18.49)	1.44 ↓ (1.67)

The most likely Over/Under: 55.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulon
31.9%

Draw
3.8%

Toulouse
64.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

5.1%

56.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

5.1%

56.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulon has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toulon's form might have worsened.

Toulouse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toulouse's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toulon than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toulon, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toulouse than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toulouse, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Toulon - Toulouse Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:32

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gros J.	1. Baille C.
2. Lucchesi G.	2. Mauvaka P.
3. Gigashvili B.	3. Merkler J.
4. Mezou C.	4. Flament T.
5. Halagahu M. (C)	5. Meafou E.
6. Kpoku J.	6. Cros F.
7. Abadie E.	7. Willis J. (C)
8. Mercer Z.	8. Roumat A.
9. Serin B.	9. Dupont A.
10. Albornoz T.	10. Ntamack R.
11. Ferte M.	11. Lebel M.
12. Frisch A.	12. Chocobares S.
13. Brex N.	13. Barassi P.
14. Drean G.	14. Thomas T.
15. Jaminet M.	15. Kinghorn B.
Substitutes
16. Baubigny T.	16. Lacombre T.
17. Ametlla L.	17. Bertrand B.
18. Shioshvili M.	18. Verge C.
19. Coulon J.	19. Elias E.
20. Garbisi P.	20. Saito N.
21. White B.	21. Pouzelgues C.
22. Tuicuvu S.	22. Remue M.
23. Sinckler K.	23. Colombe Reazel G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (20 - 24)
5', Ntamack R. (Try),
6', Ntamack R. (Conversion Goal),
8', Albornoz T. (Try),
9', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
16', Drean G. (Try),
17', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
24', Jaminet M. (Penalty Goal),
27', Ntamack R. (Penalty Goal),
34', Mauvaka P. (Try),
35', Ntamack R. (Conversion Goal),
38', Jaminet M. (Penalty Goal),
40+2', Dupont A. (Try),
40+2', Ntamack R. (Conversion Goal),
2nd Half (7 - 27)
42', Ntamack R. (Penalty Goal),
45', Chocobares S. (Try),
46', Ntamack R. (Conversion Goal),
63', Ntamack R. (Penalty Goal),
65', White B. (Try),
65', Jaminet M. (Conversion Goal),
76', Saito N. (Try),
76', Remue M. (Conversion Goal),
79', Remue M. (Try),
79', Remue M. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Top 14 (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulon won 1.

Toulon is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Toulouse has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Toulouse may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Toulouse is a strong favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toulon won 8 matches, drew 1 match, lost 11 matches, and goals 363:516. (average 18.2:25.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Toulon won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 222:182. (average 22.2:18.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
1	Stade Toulousain	5	4	0	1	152:90	19
13	RC Toulonnais	5	1	0	4	101:115	8

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- RC Toulonnais
European Rugby Champions Cup
02.05.26	Leinster - Toulon	29:25 ✺
French Top 14
25.04.26	Toulon - Aviron Bayonnais	52:26 ✺
18.04.26	Montauban - Toulon	22:47 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
11.04.26	Glasgow Warriors - Toulon	19:22 ✺
04.04.26	Toulon - Stormers	28:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 LWWWW
- Stade Toulousain
French Top 14
26.04.26	Toulouse - Clermont	24:27 ✺
18.04.26	Castres - Toulouse	25:42 ✺
European Rugby Champions Cup
12.04.26	Bordeaux Bègles - Toulouse	30:15 ✺
04.04.26	Toulouse - Bristol Rugby	59:26 ✺
French Top 14
28.03.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	45:29 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
26.10.25	Toulouse - Toulon	59:24
10.05.25	Toulon - Toulouse	16:50
European Rugby Champions Cup
13.04.25	Toulon - Toulouse	18:21
French Top 14
27.10.24	Toulouse - Toulon	57:5
20.04.24	Toulon - Toulouse	20:19
23.12.23	Toulouse - Toulon	25:17
18.02.23	Toulon - Toulouse	17:6

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