Match Info

Top 14 - Round 6

Date: 11 October 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Ernest-Wallon (Toulouse)

Where to Watch on TV:


France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1
United-kingdom	FloSports app, Premier Sports Rugby
International	TOP 14 Rugby TV


	Toulouse		Aviron Bayonnais

	1	X	2
	1.01	51	17
	1.02	50	11
	1.02	43.66	16.24	Watch
	1.02	41	9.85
	1.02	50	18
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.02 ↑ (1.01)	47.13 ↑ (45)	14.42 ↓ (16.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 65.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-28)

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toulouse
91.6%

Draw
2%

Aviron Bayonnais
6.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

92.3%

2.1%

5.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toulouse has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Aviron Bayonnais has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Toulouse will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 47:19

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Baille C.	1. Bordelai A.
2. Marchand J.	2. Martin L.
3. Aldegheri D.	3. Tatafu T.
4. Brennan J.	4. Johnson E.
5. Flament T.	5. Paulos L.
6. Cros F.	6. Fischer A.
7. Elias E.	7. Heguy B.
8. Ntamack T.	8. Capilla E.
9. Dupont A.	9. Coly L.
10. Ntamack R.	10. Segonds J.
11. Lebel M.	11. Carreras M.
12. Chocobares S.	12. du Preez R.
13. Menoncello T.	13. Maqala S.
14. Capuozzo A.	14. Spring T.
15. Mallia J.	15. Orabe Y.
Substitutes
16. Lacombre T.	16. Cramont G.
17. Neti R.	17. Calles I.
18. Bonnard J.	18. Uhila M.
19. Roumat A.	19. Iturria A.
20. Graou P.	20. Habel Kueffner G.
21. Gourgues K.	21. Tilloles B.
22. Thomas T.	22. Martocq G.
23. Merkler J.	23. Setiano E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (24 - 20)
3', Baille C. (Try),
7', Maqala S. (Try),
7', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
11', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
11', Dupont A. (Try),
12', Ntamack R. (Conversion Goal),
15', Segonds J. (Penalty Goal),
17', Spring T. (Try),
21', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
24', Marchand J. (Try),
25', Ntamack R. (Conversion Goal),
35', Marchand J. (Try),
36', Ntamack R. (Missed Conversion),
2nd Half (21 - 14)
51', Menoncello T. 🟨,
52', Cramont G. (Try),
52', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),
60', Brennan J. (Try),
60', Ntamack R. (Conversion Goal),
68', Ntamack R. (Try),
68', Ntamack R. (Conversion Goal),
73', Capuozzo A. (Try),
73', Ntamack R. (Conversion Goal),
80+1', Carreras M. (Try),
80+2', Segonds J. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Top 14 Playoffs - Semi - finals and 5th in the Promotion - Top 14 Playoffs - Quarter - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toulouse won 3.

Both teams look competitive and well-prepared heading into this encounter.

Bayonne could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The betting markets point to Toulouse as the clear and undisputed favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Toulouse has recorded 11 wins, 0 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 528:379 (averaging 26.4:19 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Toulouse against this opponent, the record stands at 10 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with 386:163 goals (averaging 35.1:14.8 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
1	Stade Toulousain	6	5	0	1	197:124	24
5	Aviron Bayonnais	6	4	0	2	190:214	17

Last Results with these Odds

Toulouse - the odds 1.01 are the expected chance of winning is 92.28%, but this team recently wins 100% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Toulousain
French Top 14
03.10.26	Castres - Toulouse	7:8 ✺
27.09.26	Toulouse - Montpellier	40:18 ✺
19.09.26	Vannes - Toulouse	23:29 ✺
13.09.26	Toulouse - Bordeaux Bègles	48:12 ✺
06.09.26	La Rochelle - Toulouse	30:27 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWWWL
- Aviron Bayonnais Rudby
French Top 14
03.10.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Stade Français	35:32 ✺
26.09.26	Racing Métro - Aviron Bayonnais	17:20 ✺
19.09.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Clermont	46:24 ✺
12.09.26	Section Paloise - Aviron Bayonnais	70:28 ✺
05.09.26	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulon	27:26 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Top 14
31.01.26	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	31:10
05.10.25	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulouse	40:26
20.06.25	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	32:25
22.02.25	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	41:6
03.11.24	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulouse	12:8
03.02.24	Toulouse - Aviron Bayonnais	46:26
18.08.23	Aviron Bayonnais - Toulouse	26:7

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