Match Info

Pro D2 - Round 12

Date: 28 November 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


France	Canal+ Live 6


	US Dax		Mont-De-Marsan

	1	X	2
	1.33	23	3.4
	1.31	23	3.55
	1.39	18.06	3.35	Watch
	1.31	18	3.65
	1.35	21	3.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.39)	20.61 ↑ (18.06)	3.47 ↑ (3.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 44.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

US Dax
68.9%

Draw
4.5%

Mont-De-Marsan
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67%

5.2%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.8%

5.7%

30.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

US Dax has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Mont-De-Marsan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for US Dax than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with US Dax that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mont-De-Marsan than the current prediction. (+4%)

US Dax - Mont De Marsan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 26:19

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (35 - 0)
2nd Half (33 - 14)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, US Dax won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, US Dax is seen as the favorite.

We predict that US Dax will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, US Dax won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 249:293. (average 19.2:22.5).

Including home matches between the teams, US Dax won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 148:145. (average 21.1:20.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- US Dax
French Pro D2
14.11.25	Biarritz - US Dax	18:33 ✺
07.11.25	US Dax - Carcassonne	19:0 ✺
31.10.25	Agen - US Dax	31:0 ✺
24.10.25	US Dax - Béziers	40:5 ✺
17.10.25	Stade Aurillacois - US Dax	36:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 WWLWL
- Mont-De-Marsan
French Pro D2
14.11.25	Mont-De-Marsan - SA XV Charente	6:16 ✺
07.11.25	Brive - Mont-De-Marsan	68:10 ✺
31.10.25	Mont-De-Marsan - Nevers	71:10 ✺
24.10.25	Biarritz - Mont-De-Marsan	35:13 ✺
17.10.25	Mont-De-Marsan - FC Grenoble	32:18 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

French Pro D2
25.04.25	Mont-De-Marsan - US Dax	34:18
16.11.24	US Dax - Mont-De-Marsan	40:11
26.04.24	Mont-De-Marsan - US Dax	13:18
03.11.23	US Dax - Mont-De-Marsan	26:22
02.02.18	Mont-De-Marsan - US Dax	26:23
01.12.17	US Dax - Mont-De-Marsan	13:29
28.04.17	US Dax - Mont-De-Marsan	17:13

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