Match Info

JAPAN: League One - Round 10

Date: 28 February 2025, Friday

Location: J Village (Fukushima)


	Urayasu D-Rocks		Toyota Verblitz

	1	X	2
	2.6	26	1.48
	2.6	23	1.5
	2.6	26	1.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.8)	25 ↑ (21)	1.49 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 60.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-6)

The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Urayasu D-Rocks
35.1%

Draw
3.6%

Toyota Verblitz
61.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.5%

4.3%

63.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.8%

4.4%

64.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Urayasu D-Rocks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)

Toyota Verblitz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Urayasu D-Rocks than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toyota Verblitz than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

Urayasu D Rocks - Toyota Verblitz Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 27:33

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Nabeshima H.	1. Momoji R.
2. Fujimura R. (C)	2. Hikosaka Y. (C)
3. Ryom K.	3. Sudo G.
4. Helu U.	4. Dickson J.
5. Erasmus L.	5. Gray R.
6. Parsons T.	6. Smith A.
7. Kojima D.	7. Okui A.
8. Wiese J.	8. Lautaimi F.
9. Iinuma R.	9. Shigeno K.
10. Black O.	10. McGahan M.
11. Cavubati C.	11. Tuidraki V.
12. Kerevi S.	12. Okada Y.
13. Gates S.	13. Fifita S.
14. Matsumoto S.	14. Manu J.
15. Yasuda T.	15. Takahashi T.
Substitutes
16. Shokei K.	16. Kato R.
17. Sekonaia P.	17. Miura S.
18. Takeuchi S.	18. Asaoka S.
19. Tui H.	19. Keito A.
20. Shigematsu T.	20. Hooper M.
21. Tukufuka T.	21. Smith A.
22. Hashimoto N.	22. Komura S.
23. Ishii K.	23. Wilson D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 21)
1', Dickson J. (Try),
2', McGahan M. (Conversion Goal),
5', Hikosaka Y. (Try),
5', McGahan M. (Conversion Goal),
11', Hikosaka Y. (Try),
12', McGahan M. (Conversion Goal),
20', Kojima D. ↓, Shigematsu T. ↑,
20', Fifita S. ↓, Wilson D. ↑,
21', Takahashi T. 🟨,
23', Wilson D. ↓, Fifita S. ↑,
32', Kerevi S. 🟨,
2nd Half (31 - 15)
46', Ryom K. ↓, Takeuchi S. ↑,
49', (Penalty Try),
49', Erasmus L. 🟨,
50', Helu U. ↓, Tui H. ↑,
52', Shigeno K. 🟨,
53', Cavubati C. (Try),
54', Black O. (Conversion Goal),
55', Gray R. ↓, Smith A. ↑,
55', Okada Y. ↓, Wilson D. ↑,
56', Iinuma R. (Try),
57', Black O. (Conversion Goal),
57', Cavubati C. ↓, Ishii K. ↑,
57', Hikosaka Y. ↓, Kato R. ↑,
57', Sudo G. ↓, Asaoka S. ↑,
58', Iinuma R. (Try),
59', Black O. (Conversion Goal),
59', Nabeshima H. ↓, Sekonaia P. ↑,
61', Momoji R. ↓, Miura S. ↑,
61', Lautaimi F. ↓, Keito A. ↑,
64', Shigeno K. ↓, Hooper M. ↑,
64', Manu J. ↓, Komura S. ↑,
68', Tuidraki V. (Try),
71', Gates S. (Try),
71', Black O. (Conversion Goal),
71', Iinuma R. ↓, Hashimoto N. ↑,
71', Shigematsu T. ↓, Tukufuka T. ↑,
77', McGahan M. (Penalty Goal),
80', Black O. (Penalty Goal),

Preview

Urayasu D-Rocks is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Toyota Verblitz has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recently Urayasu D-Rocks have a series of guest games.

Toyota Verblitz will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 3 head-to-head matches Urayasu D-Rocks won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 87:116 (average 29:38.7).

Including matches at home between the teams Urayasu D-Rocks won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 65:85 (average 32.5:42.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Urayasu D-Rocks
Japan League One Rugby Union
22.02.25	Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath - Urayasu D-Rocks	40:35 ✺
15.02.25	Ricoh Black Rams - Urayasu D-Rocks	44:22 ✺
07.02.25	Urayasu D-Rocks - Honda Heat	31:26 ✺
01.02.25	Panasonic Wild Knights - Urayasu D-Rocks	53:26 ✺
18.01.25	Kobe Steel Kobelco Steelers - Urayasu D-Rocks	50:22 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLWLL
- Toyota Verblitz
Japan League One Rugby Union
22.02.25	Kobe Steel Kobelco Steelers - Toyota Verblitz	63:21 ✺
15.02.25	Toyota Verblitz - Shizuoka Blue Revs	23:33 ✺
09.02.25	Mitsubishi Sagamihara DynaBoars - Toyota Verblitz	44:40 ✺
01.02.25	Toyota Verblitz - Canon Eagles	19:24 ✺
19.01.25	Toyota Verblitz - Panasonic Wild Knights	22:38 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan League One Rugby Union
05.03.22	Toyota Verblitz - Urayasu D-Rocks	31:22
27.02.21	Urayasu D-Rocks - Toyota Verblitz	29:47
13.10.18	Urayasu D-Rocks - Toyota Verblitz	36:38

Urayasu D-Rocks - Toyota Verblitz: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide