Match Info

Bunnings NPC

Date: 3 October 2025, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Sky Stadium (Wellington) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	22:05	Disney+
Brazil	22:05	Disney+
Chile	22:05	Disney+
Colombia	20:05	Disney+
Mexico	19:05	Disney+
Peru	20:05	Disney+
Uruguay	22:05	Disney+
Venezuela	21:05	Disney+


	Wellington		Bay of Plenty

	1	X	2
	2.88	34	1.4
	3	25	1.4
				Watch
	3	25	1.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↓ (3.4)	28 ↑ (22)	1.4 ↑ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 54.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wellington
31.1%

Draw
3.3%

Bay of Plenty
65.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

26.9%

4.2%

68.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.9%

71.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wellington has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Bay of Plenty has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wellington than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Wellington that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bay of Plenty than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Bay of Plenty could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Wellington - Bay of Plenty Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Wellington will win (votes: 1 - 50%). Bay of Plenty will win (votes: 1 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Wellington (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:31

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (21 - 7)
2nd Half (5 - 26)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 4.

Wellington has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Bay of Plenty is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Bay of Plenty is seen as the favorite.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Wellington won 12 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 410:272. (average 31.5:20.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Wellington won 7 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 238:161. (average 34:23).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wellington Rugby
New Zealand NPC
26.09.25	Taranaki - Wellington	39:20 ✺
19.09.25	Wellington - Southland	75:19 ✺
11.09.25	Northland - Wellington	43:26 ✺
05.09.25	Hawkes Bay - Wellington	45:19 ✺
30.08.25	Wellington - Auckland	36:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWLLW
- Bay of Plenty
New Zealand NPC
27.09.25	Bay of Plenty - Waikato	41:5 ✺
21.09.25	Manawatu - Bay of Plenty	19:55 ✺
12.09.25	Bay of Plenty - Hawkes Bay	21:24 ✺
06.09.25	Taranaki - Bay of Plenty	17:43 ✺
29.08.25	North Harbour - Bay of Plenty	7:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

New Zealand NPC
25.10.24	Wellington - Bay of Plenty	23:20 OT
20.09.24	Wellington - Bay of Plenty	30:25 OT
16.09.23	Bay of Plenty - Wellington	14:26
07.08.22	Wellington - Bay of Plenty	37:35
01.10.21	Bay of Plenty - Wellington	33:32
25.09.20	Wellington - Bay of Plenty	32:10
07.09.19	Bay of Plenty - Wellington	15:16

Wellington - Bay of Plenty: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide