Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 3

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	FloSports app
World	EPCR Rugby TV


	Zebre		Ospreys

	1	X	2
	2.88	21	1.44
	2.8	22	1.45
	2.87	20.26	1.48
	2.75	21	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↓ (2.91)	21.07 ↑ (20.98)	1.47 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 47.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-7)

The best margin for this event is 7.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Zebre
32.7%

Draw
4.4%

Ospreys
62.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.6%

4.4%

64%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

4.6%

61.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zebre has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Ospreys has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zebre than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Zebre - Ospreys Predictions

Users Predictions: 1 users predict this event. Ospreys will win (votes: 1 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ospreys (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 21:28

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Buonfiglio P.	1. Phillips G.
2. Di Bartolomeo T.	2. Lake D. (C)
3. Hasa M.	3. Botha T.
4. Canali M.	4. Smith R.
5. Krumov L. (C)	5. Fender J.
6. Bianchi J.	6. Ratti J.
7. Locatelli S.	7. Deaves-Small H.
8. Ferrari G.	8. Morse M.
9. Fusco A.	9. Hardy K.
10. Da Re G.	10. Edwards D.
11. Gesi S.	11. Giles K.
12. Mazza D.	12. Williams K.
13. Bertaccini G.	13. Boshoff E.
14. Belloni M.	14. Hopkins I.
15. Montemauri G.	15. Walsh J.
Substitutes
16. Quattrini G.	16. Lloyd L.
17. Franceschetto L.	17. Thomas S.
18. Pieretto E.	18. Hire K.
19. Ortombina A.	19. Jones L.
20. Odiase D.	20. Evans G.
21. Dominguez T.	21. Morgan-Williams R.
22. Zanon M.	22. Watkin O.
23. Stavile B.	23. Kasende D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (13 - 0)
17', Da Re G. (Penalty Goal),
23', Fusco A. (Try),
23', Da Re G. (Conversion Goal),
28', Da Re G. (Penalty Goal),
2nd Half (10 - 19)
44', Morse M. (Try),
45', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
55', Williams K. (Try),
55', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
59', Da Re G. (Penalty Goal),
68', Edwards D. (Try),
73', Locatelli S. (Try),
74', Da Re G. (Conversion Goal),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zebre won 1.

Zebre has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ospreys is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Ospreys is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zebre won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 15 matches, and goals 306:557. (average 15.3:27.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Zebre won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 190:219. (average 19:21.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Zebre Rugby
United Rugby Championship
03.01.26	Glasgow Warriors - Zebre	47:10 ✺
27.12.25	Zebre - Benetton Treviso	23:37 ✺
20.12.25	Benetton Treviso - Zebre	21:15 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
12.12.25	Montpellier - Zebre	31:7 ✺
06.12.25	Zebre - Montauban	41:17 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLLW
- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
01.01.26	Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby	33:22 ✺
26.12.25	Llanelli Scarlets - Ospreys	19:26 ✺
20.12.25	Ospreys - Munster	10:26 ✺
Challenge Cup Rugby
13.12.25	Montauban - Ospreys	22:33 ✺
07.12.25	Ospreys - Connacht	24:21 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
11.10.25	Ospreys - Zebre	24:0
30.11.24	Zebre - Ospreys	22:17
28.10.23	Ospreys - Zebre	34:31
29.01.23	Zebre - Ospreys	24:28
06.03.22	Ospreys - Zebre	27:22
20.02.21	Ospreys - Zebre	10:0
02.11.20	Zebre - Ospreys	23:17

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