Match Info
United Rugby Championship - Round 9Date: 1 January 2026, ThursdayLocation: Swansea.com Stadium (Swansea)Where to Watch on TV: | |
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 Africa | SuperSport Rugby |
 Asia | Premier Sports Rugby Asia |
 Nigeria | SuperSport Rugby |
 South-africa | SuperSport Rugby |
 United-kingdom | BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, BBC Two, FloSports app, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player, URC |
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Ospreys |
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Cardiff Rugby |
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1 |
X |
2 |
|
 |
1.5 |
26 |
2.63 |
|
 |
1.48 |
21 |
2.7 |
|
 |
1.54 |
22.61 |
2.62 |
 Watch |
 |
1.57 |
21 |
2.5 |
|
 |
1.51 |
26 |
2.64 |
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 |
1.5 |
31 |
2.62 |
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Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.52 ↓
(1.61) |
24.6 ↑
(20.08) |
2.62 ↑
(2.48) |
|
- The most likely Over/Under: 45.50
- The most likely Handicap: 1 (-4)
- The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by
#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+ Current Win Probability
Ospreys
60.9% | Draw
3.8% | Cardiff Rugby
35.3% |
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML EstimationAnalysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)Cardiff Rugby has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ospreys than the current prediction. (-7.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ospreys that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cardiff Rugby than the current prediction. (+5.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cardiff Rugby could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby Predictions
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -4.5 - Ospreys (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Ospreys (votes: 1 - 100%). Expected Score (Market Odds): 25:21 
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Key Events of the Match
- 1st Half (12 - 7)
- 2nd Half (21 - 15)
Preview
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 2.Both teams have been playing unpredictably. Ospreys will hold a modest advantage in this match.We predict that Ospreys will win today's game, with odds of 1.55.In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 14 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 494:421. (average 24.7:21.1).Including home matches between the teams, Ospreys won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 232:205. (average 25.8:22.8).
Standings
| | Pl | W | D | L | | Pts |
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| 6 | Cardiff Rugby | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 66:71 | 9 |
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| 13 | Ospreys | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 81:107 | 6 |
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Outrights of United Rugby Championship for now
Ospreys: 0.74% Cardiff Rugby: 0.74%
Form
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
Latest Head to Head
| United Rugby Championship | | | 19.04.25 | Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby | 19:36 | | 01.01.25 | Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys | 13:13 | | 01.06.24 | Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys | 22:33 | | 01.01.24 | Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby | 27:21 | | 22.04.23 | Ospreys - Cardiff Rugby | 21:38 | | 01.01.23 | Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys | 19:22 | | 23.04.22 | Cardiff Rugby - Ospreys | 6:22 |
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Upcoming Matches
✺ - easy match;
✺ - difficult match;
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