Match Info

Challenge Cup - Round 1

Date: 7 December 2025, Sunday


	Ospreys		Connacht

	1	X	2
	1.8	19	2.1
	1.77	21	2.1
	1.8	21	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (1.81)	20.33 ↑ (19.33)	2.1 ↑ (2.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 45.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ospreys
51.5%

Draw
4.5%

Connacht
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.5%

4.7%

44.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ospreys has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

Connacht has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Ospreys - Connacht Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 24:22

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
. Boshoff E.	. Aki B.
. Botha T.	. Bealham F.
. Cokanasiga P.	. Buckley D.
. Davies R.	. Carty J.
. Deaves-Small H.	. Gilbert S.
. Edwards D.	. Heffernan D.
. Hopkins I.	. Jansen S.
. Kasende D.	. Jennings S.
. Morgan-Williams R.	. Joyce J.
. Moriarty R.	. Murphy B.
. Parry S.	. Murphy J.
. Phillips G.	. Naughton S.
. Ratti J.	. O'Brien S.
. Smith R.	. O'Connor D.
. Walsh J.	. Treacy F.
Substitutes
. Davies L.	. Aungier J.
. Evans G.	. Boyle P.
. Giles K.	. De Buitlear E.
. Henry R.	. Duggan J.
. Lewis L.	. Murray D.
. Nagy M.	. Reilly C.
. Sutton H.	. Walsh S.
. Thomas G.	. West H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (5 - 21)
11', Bealham F. (Try),
12', Naughton S. (Conversion Goal),
17', Ratti J. 🟨,
17', Jansen S. (Try),
18', Naughton S. (Conversion Goal),
23', Aungier J. (Try),
24', Naughton S. (Conversion Goal),
28', Phillips G. 🟨,
40+2', Deaves-Small H. (Try),
2nd Half (19 - 0)
56', Cokanasiga P. (Try),
57', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
68', Smith R. (Try),
69', Edwards D. (Conversion Goal),
75', Hopkins I. (Try),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 1.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Ospreys will win today's game, with odds of 1.79.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ospreys won 10 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 489:475. (average 24.5:23.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ospreys won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 249:168. (average 27.7:18.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ospreys Premiership Select
United Rugby Championship
29.11.25	Edinburgh - Ospreys	19:17 ✺
25.10.25	Newport Gwent Dragons - Ospreys	19:19 ✺
18.10.25	Ospreys - Glasgow Warriors	17:42 ✺
11.10.25	Ospreys - Zebre	24:0 ✺
03.10.25	Stormers - Ospreys	26:10 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LTLWL
- Connacht Rugby
United Rugby Championship
29.11.25	Connacht - Sharks	44:17 ✺
25.10.25	Munster - Connacht	17:15 ✺
17.10.25	Connacht - Blue Bulls	27:28 ✺
11.10.25	Cardiff Rugby - Connacht	14:8 ✺
27.09.25	Connacht - Benetton Treviso	26:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

United Rugby Championship
22.03.25	Ospreys - Connacht	43:40
21.10.23	Connacht - Ospreys	34:26
29.10.22	Ospreys - Connacht	19:22
26.11.21	Connacht - Ospreys	46:18
Pro14 Rainbow Cup
04.06.21	Connacht - Ospreys	26:19
United Rugby Championship
24.01.21	Connacht - Ospreys	20:26
02.11.19	Ospreys - Connacht	10:20

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