What is the expert prediction for Ryan Day vs Ben Mertens?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Ryan Day vs Ben Mertens. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Ryan Day vs Ben Mertens Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Wednesday, January 07, 2026)

Match Info

German Masters - Qualification - Semi-finals

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Eurosport 1
Finland	Eurosport 1
France	Eurosport 1
Germany	Eurosport 1
Hungary	Eurosport 1
Italy	Eurosport 1
Netherlands	Eurosport 1
Norway	Eurosport 1
Poland	Eurosport 1
Romania	Eurosport 1
Spain	Eurosport 1
Turkey	Eurosport 1


	Ryan Day		Ben Mertens

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
			Watch
	1.50	2.35	Watch
	1.53	2.5
	1.49	2.51
	1.52	2.54
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 (1.51)	2.48 ↓ (2.51)

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ryan Day
62.2%

Ben Mertens
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.5%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ryan Day has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Ben Mertens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ryan Day than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ben Mertens than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

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Preview

Day is ranked World Ranking: 35. Mertens is ranked World Ranking: 67.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Day may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Day could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Day won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2.

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Last Results with these Odds

Ryan Day - the odds 1.51 are the expected chance of winning is 62.46%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ryan Day
Snooker
15.12.25	Matthew Selt - Ryan Day	4:2 ✺
13.12.25	Ryan Day - Ethan Llewellyn	11:54 ✺
12.12.25	Ryan Day - Duane Jones	78:28 ✺
10.12.25	Umut Dikme - Ryan Day	8:90 ✺
29.11.25	Si Jiahui - Ryan Day	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLWWL
- Ben Mertens
Snooker
06.01.26	Ben Mertens - Alexander Ursenbacher	5:1 ✺
17.12.25	Ben Mertens - Thepchaiya Un-Nooh	2:4 ✺
16.12.25	Mark Williams - Ben Mertens	Mertens B. walkover ✺
13.12.25	Ben Mertens - Robbie McGuigan	48:21 ✺
12.12.25	Ben Mertens - Liam Graham	36:23 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WL?WW