Match Info

Ligue Professionnelle 1 - Round 13

Date: 5 November 2025, Wednesday

Location: Stade Olympique de Sousse (Sousse)

Where to Watch on TV:


Tunisia	Diwan Sport, Watania 1


	Étoile du Sahel		Zarzis

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.25	4.75
	1.73	3.32	4.8
	2.68	2.84	2.72	Watch
	1.69	3.28	4.9	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.68)	3.17 ↑ (2.84)	4.29 ↑ (2.72)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Étoile du Sahel
48.4%

Draw
29.7%

Zarzis
21.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.1%

32.2%

33.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.4%

32.9%

34.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Étoile du Sahel has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Étoile du Sahel's performance.

Zarzis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Zarzis might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Étoile du Sahel than the current prediction. (-15%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Étoile du Sahel that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zarzis than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Zarzis could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	10%	10%

Étoile du Sahel - Zarzis Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Étoile du Sahel will win (votes: 8 - 80%). Zarzis will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Étoile du Sahel: 55.2% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Étoile du Sahel will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Ben Hessen S. (G) 30. Anane M. 28. Aouani R. 25. Ben Choug F. 18. Cristo 33. Dagdoug H. 6. Gbo C. 26. Ghedamsi S. (C) 5. Hnid N. 10. Kante M. 2. Omija A.	22. Charfi S. (G) 7. Ben Dhiaf A. 5. Chouchane M. 20. Diallo P. 35. Ghouma F. 11. Jertila M. 6. Khalfa K. 33. Mahersi G. 19. Nshuti I. 28. Rjili L. 27. Tajourii A.
Substitutes
8. Al Qulaib N. 7. Ben Seghaier M. 19. Bouslama M. 9. Chaabani M. 13. Chouchane M. 16. Gazzeh R. (G) 27. Khadraoui S. 3. Naouali G. 11. Senghor M.	2. Cissokho M. 32. Ghanmi H. (G) 21. Ifi J. 13. Kassab K. 15. Labidi Z. 24. Mokhtar B. 29. Rahmani M. 23. Sghaier M. 17. Stanley O.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Dagdoug H. ⚽,
41', Charfi S. 🟥,
45', Jertila M. ↓, Ghanmi H. ↑,
45+5', Ben Choug F. 🟨,
45+11', Cristo 🟨,
45+11', Ben Choug F. 🟥,
45+11', Tajourii A. 🟨,
45+15', Nshuti I. 🟥,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
67', Kante M. ↓, Ben Seghaier M. ↑,
67', Aouani R. ↓, Chaabani M. ↑,
80', Dagdoug H. ↓, Naouali G. ↑,
80', Anane M. ↓, Chouchane M. ↑,
88', Mahersi G. ↓, Labidi Z. ↑,
90+9', Gbo C. ↓, Bouslama M. ↑,
90+11', Naouali G. 🟨,
90+13', Chouchane M. 🟥,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 4).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Étoile du Sahel won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Étoile du Sahel may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Étoile du Sahel won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 1.5:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Étoile du Sahel won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Étoile du Sahel
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
01.11.25	Étoile du Sahel - Métlaoui	2:0 ✺
29.10.25	Marsa - Étoile du Sahel	0:2 ✺
CAF Confederation Cup
26.10.25	Étoile du Sahel - Nairobi United	2:0 ✺
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
22.10.25	Étoile du Sahel - Olympique Béja	1:2 ✺
CAF Confederation Cup
19.10.25	Nairobi United - Étoile du Sahel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWLL
- ES Zarzis
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
02.11.25	Zarzis - Marsa	AS Marsa awarded ✺
26.10.25	Olympique Béja - Zarzis	0:3 ✺
22.10.25	Zarzis - Espérance ST	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Stade Tunisien - Zarzis	3:0 ✺
28.09.25	Zarzis - Soliman	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 ?WTLL

Latest Head to Head

Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
09.03.25	Étoile du Sahel - Zarzis	0:1
24.11.24	Zarzis - Étoile du Sahel	2:3
16.03.22	Zarzis - Étoile du Sahel	0:3
04.11.21	Étoile du Sahel - Zarzis	1:1
Tunisian Cup
30.05.21	Zarzis - Étoile du Sahel	1:0
Tunisian Ligue Professionnelle 1
31.01.18	Étoile du Sahel - Zarzis	3:1
10.09.17	Zarzis - Étoile du Sahel	0:1

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