Match Info

TOPLYGA - Round 23

Date: 19 July 2026, Sunday

Location: LFF stadionas (Vilnius)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Žalgiris		Transinvest

	1	X	2
	1.87	3.40	3.40
	1.75	3.55	3.85
	1.75	3.92	4.41
	1.88	3.68	3.76	Watch
	1.71	3.85	4.25
	1.81	3.77	3.98	Watch
	1.76	3.6	3.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↓ (2.05)	3.68 ↑ (3.45)	3.94 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Žalgiris
51.5%

Draw
25%

Transinvest
23.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.9%

26%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.4%

25.7%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Žalgiris has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Žalgiris's performance.

Transinvest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Transinvest might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Žalgiris than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Žalgiris that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Transinvest than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Transinvest could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	6.7%	0%

Žalgiris - Transinvest Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.61) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (1.65) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - Žalgiris (1.41) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Žalgiris will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Žalgiris will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Žalgiris (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Sarkauskas V. (G) 18. Sesplaukis D. 4. Koy Lupano D. 15. Bosancic P. 21. Franke D. 20. Lytvynenko I. 6. Capan M. 10. Golubickas P. (C) 19. Bilenkyi S. 7. Mihajlovic N. 11. Petkovic N.	25. Mostovei I. (G) 5. Sveikauskas R. 93. Girdvainis E. (C) 33. Barauskas D. 32. Musolitin M. 6. Bilbao I. 7. Bosnjak D. 49. Tavares B. 88. Sluta D. 8. Glushach Y. 10. Nwoga C.
Substitutes
8. Antal L. 29. Bicka K. 9. Jarusevicius G. 77. Kendysh Y. 23. Mamatsashvili S. 1. Olses C. (G) 14. Setkus M. 70. Teixeira B. 5. Turda G. 13. Upstas K. 27. Vareika M. 22. Verbickas O.	80. Kloniunas E. 15. Koffi 9. Milosevic S. 12. Petkus N. 17. Steponavicius T. 26. Tamasevicius A. 70. Traore A. 1. Virvilas J. (G)
Coaches
Skerla A.	Stankevicius M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Bilenkyi S. ⚽,
36', Bilenkyi S. 🟨,
41', 2 - 0, Petkovic N. ⚽, Franke D. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Bosnjak D. ↓, Traore A. ↑,
46', Nwoga C. ↓, Milosevic S. ↑,
50', 3 - 0, Petkovic N. ⚽, Lytvynenko I. (A),
60', Golubickas P. ↓, Teixeira B. ↑,
60', Mihajlovic N. ↓, Vareika M. ↑,
67', Tavares B. ↓, Koffi ↑,
67', Sluta D. ↓, Kloniunas E. ↑,
69', 3 - 1, Milosevic S. ⚽, Musolitin M. (A),
70', Franke D. ↓, Mamatsashvili S. ↑,
72', Koy Lupano D. 🟨,
82', Petkovic N. ↓, Antal L. ↑,
87', Glushach Y. ↓, Petkus N. ↑,
90+1', Sveikauskas R. 🟨,
90+2', Bilenkyi S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris won 3.

Žalgiris is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Transinvest has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Transinvest may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Žalgiris has had a series of away games.

Žalgiris is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Žalgiris won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:6. (average 1.4:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Žalgiris won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:2. (average 1.7:0.7).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Transinvest	28	13	6	9	43:35	8	45
4	Zalgiris	28	13	5	10	41:34	7	44

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Žalgiris Vilnius
UEFA Europa Conference League
16.07.26	Žalgiris - Petrovac	2:1 ✺
09.07.26	Petrovac - Žalgiris	1:3 ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
05.07.26	FA Šiauliai - Žalgiris	0:3 ✺
28.06.26	Džiugas Telšiai - Žalgiris	0:0 ✺
20.06.26	Banga Gargždai - Žalgiris	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWTL
- FK Transinvest
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
12.07.26	Transinvest - Banga Gargždai	1:3 ✺
06.07.26	Sūduva Marijampolė - Transinvest	0:0 ✺
29.06.26	FA Šiauliai - Transinvest	1:3 ✺
Lithuanian Cup
24.06.26	Dainava Alytus - Transinvest	2:1 penalties ✺
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
20.06.26	Transinvest - Kauno Žalgiris	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3 LTWLL

Latest Head to Head

Lithuanian TOPLYGA
17.05.26	Transinvest - Žalgiris	1:0
16.03.26	Žalgiris - Transinvest	1:2
26.10.24	Transinvest - Žalgiris	0:1
14.08.24	Žalgiris - Transinvest	2:0
02.06.24	Transinvest - Žalgiris	1:3
Lithuanian Cup
30.05.24	Transinvest - Žalgiris	2:1
Lithuanian TOPLYGA
10.04.24	Žalgiris - Transinvest	2:0

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