The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
4 de Julho 29.6%
Draw 30.7%
Moto Club de São Luís 39.8%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
32.2%
33%
34.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
33.3%
34.1%
33.6%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
4 de Julho has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
Moto Club de São Luís has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Moto Club de São Luís's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for 4 de Julho than the current prediction. (+3.7%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moto Club de São Luís than the current prediction. (-6.2%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Moto Club de São Luís, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
20%
60%
20%
4 de Julho - Moto Club de São Luís Predictions
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. 4 de Julho will win (votes: 3 - 20%). Moto Club will win (votes: 3 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 60%). Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 35.2% – 84.8%.
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Preview
4 de Julho is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
Recent matches Moto Club is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).
Moto Club will have a small advantage in this match.
Last 3 head-to-head matches 4 de Julho won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.
Including matches at home between the teams 4 de Julho won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-0.
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