Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 4 - Round 16

Date: 4 January 2026, Sunday


	Añorga		Pasaia

	1	X	2
	2.7	2.87	2.45
	2.8	2.9	2.45
	2.73	2.97	2.44
	2.8	3.1	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.76 ↓ (3)	2.96 ↑ (2.94)	2.43 ↑ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 10.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Añorga
32.6%

Draw
30.4%

Pasaia
37%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.4%

31%

38.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

29.3%

36.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Añorga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Pasaia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Añorga than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pasaia than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Añorga - Pasaia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

(1 - 0)

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 13).

Añorga is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Pasaia has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Añorga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Including home match between the teams, Añorga won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Pasaia	5	3	1	1	7:6	1	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Añorga KKE
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.12.25	Lagun Onak - Añorga	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Añorga - Deusto	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Portugalete - Añorga	3:0 ✺
22.11.25	Añorga - San Ignacio	0:2 ✺
15.11.25	Derio - Añorga	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LWLLL
- Pasaia KE
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
20.12.25	Pasaia - Durango	0:2 ✺
14.12.25	Aretxabaleta - Pasaia	1:0 ✺
06.12.25	Pasaia - Zamudio	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Santurtzi - Pasaia	1:3 ✺
15.11.25	Pasaia - Real Sociedad C	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 4
02.03.24	Añorga - Pasaia	1:1

Añorga - Pasaia: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide