Match Info

1st Division - Round 5

Date: 15 August 2025, Friday

Location: Aalborg Portland Park (Aalborg)

Referee: Rasmussen J. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Finland	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	Aalborg BK		Horsens

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.25	2.55	Watch
	2.3	3.3	2.7
	2.75	3.35	2.4	Watch
	2.88	3.5	2.48
	10.12	4.02	1.38	Watch
	2.65	3.38	2.56	Watch
	2.57	3.55	2.42
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.71 ↑ (2.55)	3.48 ↓ (3.6)	2.36 ↓ (2.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aalborg BK
27.5%

Draw
29.3%

Horsens
43.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.3%

25.7%

38.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.3%

25.7%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aalborg BK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aalborg BK's form might have worsened.

Horsens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Horsens's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aalborg BK than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aalborg BK, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Horsens than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Horsens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	20%	40%

Aalborg BK - Horsens Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Aalborg will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Horsens will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Horsens (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Aalborg (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Aalborg (votes: 1 - 50%). Horsens (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muller V. (G) 25. Borsting F. 33. Makolli E. 13. Pudel B. 5. Nielsen M. 8. Hapnes A. 21. Bomholt M. 2. Kallesoe M. 10. Ross O. 27. John K. 28. Moller V.	1. Delac M. (G) 4. Hausner S. 24. Kolskogen O. 12. Tape C. 30. Doua S. 16. Moro A. 32. Olsen P. 7. Milicevic I. 29. Brandhof F. 10. Kirkegaard K. 11. Pingel S.
Substitutes
24. Arnorsson N. 26. Bonde M. 37. Diagne A. 40. Gronkjaer B. (G) 9. Helenius N. 17. Jasson A. 18. Maarup A. 15. Olsson C. 39. Skovgaard B.	22. Batigi J. 31. Hoff A. (G) 33. Ludwig A. 20. Lusavec K. 14. Madsen J. 27. Ouorou Y. 34. Roslyng F. 28. Saine A. 25. Sene F.
Coaches
Hojer S.	Nielsen D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', 0 - 1, Kirkegaard K. ⚽, Pingel S. (A),
44', Doua S. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Doua S. ↓, Saine A. ↑,
46', Hausner S. ↓, Roslyng F. ↑,
54', Borsting F. ↓, Maarup A. ↑,
54', Ross O. ↓, Helenius N. ↑,
62', 0 - 2, Kirkegaard K. ⚽, Pingel S. (A),
67', Makolli E. 🟨,
68', Pingel S. ↓, Sene F. ↑,
68', Milicevic I. ↓, Madsen J. ↑,
68', Nielsen M. ↓, Arnorsson N. ↑,
79', Sene F. 🟨,
83', Kirkegaard K. ↓, Ouorou Y. ↑,
84', Roslyng F. 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,
90+4', Moro A. 🟨,
90+5', Delac M. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 in the zone 1st Division (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ 1st Division (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aalborg won 4.

Aalborg has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Horsens is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Aalborg may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Aalborg has had a series of away games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Aalborg won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 38:14. (average 1.9:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Aalborg won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:6. (average 1.7:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Aalborg BK
Danish 1 Division
10.08.25	HB Køge - Aalborg BK	0:2 ✺
Danish Landspokal Cup
06.08.25	Vendsyssel - Aalborg BK	1:2 ET ✺
Danish 1 Division
01.08.25	Aalborg BK - Hobro	1:1 ✺
26.07.25	Hillerød - Aalborg BK	2:2 ✺
19.07.25	Kolding IF - Aalborg BK	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 WWTTL
- AC Horsens
Danish Landspokal Cup
12.08.25	Næsby - Horsens	1:2 ✺
Danish 1 Division
09.08.25	Horsens - Middelfart	2:0 ✺
04.08.25	Hvidovre - Horsens	0:0 ✺
25.07.25	Horsens - Kolding IF	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Horsens - Aarhus Fremad	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division
06.10.23	Horsens - Aalborg BK	1:4
29.07.23	Aalborg BK - Horsens	1:0
Danish Superliga
07.05.23	Aalborg BK - Horsens	4:0
02.04.23	Horsens - Aalborg BK	0:4
Club Friendly
20.01.23	Horsens - Aalborg BK	2:2
Danish Superliga
10.10.22	Horsens - Aalborg BK	0:0
31.07.22	Aalborg BK - Horsens	0:0

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