Match Info

1st Division - Relegation Group - Round 27

Date: 26 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Capelli Sport Stadion (Koge)

Referee: Lykke M. (Den)

Where to Watch on TV:


Denmark	Viaplay
Norway	Viaplay
Sweden	Viaplay


	HB Køge		Aalborg BK

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.4	2.55
	2.45	3.55	2.55
	2.43	3.77	2.68
	2.42	3.72	2.57	Watch
	2.4	3.3	2.5
	2.44	3.54	2.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.43 ↓ (2.84)	3.55 ↑ (3.53)	2.57 ↑ (2.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

HB Køge
38%

Draw
26.1%

Aalborg BK
35.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.7%

26.3%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

25.3%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

HB Køge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in HB Køge's performance.

Aalborg BK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aalborg BK might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for HB Køge than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with HB Køge that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aalborg BK than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Aalborg BK could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

HB Køge - Aalborg BK Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Køge will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Aalborg will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Sommergaard N. (G) 23. Westergren M. 22. Jakobsen M. 2. Bust L. 14. Sorensen V. 7. Jensen M. (C) 27. Romer M. 16. Hald S. 20. Gothler A. 9. Thomsen T. 28. Larsen G.	40. Gronkjaer B. (G) 18. Maarup A. 33. Makolli E. 15. Olsson C. 24. Arnorsson N. 8. Hapnes A. 25. Borsting F. (C) 7. Adedeji J. 14. Kubel M. 11. Hansen K. 27. John K.
Substitutes
35. Achton L. 17. Alkhoudari B. 34. Choukri A. 31. Engberg O. 11. Mudi 19. Semovski E. 12. Talyspayev D. (G)	35. Amankwah E. 3. Andersson A. 26. Bonde M. 1. Muller V. (G) 5. Nielsen M. 31. Noshe A. 32. Tcacenco C. 44. Thomsen W.
Coaches
Pedersen N.	Hojer S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 1 - 0, Jensen M. ⚽,
29', Sorensen V. ↓, Achton L. ↑,
33', 1 - 1, Adedeji J. (Penalty Awarded),
35', Westergren M. ↓, Semovski E. ↑,
45+3', Arnorsson N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Olsson C. ↓, Nielsen M. ↑,
49', Adedeji J. 🟨,
56', Kubel M. ↓, Thomsen W. ↑,
70', Maarup A. ↓, Andersson A. ↑,
77', Bust L. 🟨,
82', Adedeji J. ↓, Noshe A. ↑,
86', Semovski E. 🟨,
86', Gothler A. ↓, Alkhoudari B. ↑,

Preview

Both teams have recently enjoyed a winning streak.

Køge may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Køge won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 2:11. (average 0.4:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Køge won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.3:2.3).

Outrights of Danish 1 Division for now

Aalborg: 4.87% Koge: 1.02%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Aalborg	9	3	4	2	11:11	0	13
11	Koge	9	1	4	4	11:17	-6	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- HB Køge
Danish 1 Division
22.04.26	Hobro - HB Køge	1:2 ✺
17.04.26	B.93 Copenhagen - HB Køge	1:2 ✺
10.04.26	HB Køge - Middelfart	2:0 ✺
06.04.26	HB Køge - Aarhus Fremad	2:0 ✺
21.03.26	HB Køge - Lyngby BK	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 27.2 WWWWT
- Aalborg BK
Danish 1 Division
23.04.26	Aalborg BK - B.93 Copenhagen	3:2 ✺
18.04.26	Aalborg BK - Aarhus Fremad	3:1 ✺
10.04.26	Hobro - Aalborg BK	0:1 ✺
04.04.26	Middelfart - Aalborg BK	2:5 ✺
21.03.26	Aalborg BK - Esbjerg	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Danish 1 Division
02.10.25	Aalborg BK - HB Køge	2:1
10.08.25	HB Køge - Aalborg BK	0:2
03.12.23	HB Køge - Aalborg BK	1:2
22.09.23	Aalborg BK - HB Køge	2:0
Danish Landspokal Cup
27.11.19	HB Køge - Aalborg BK	0:3

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