Match Info

SWITZERLAND: CHALLENGE LEAGUE - ROUND 26

Date: 16 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Stadion Brügglifeld (Aarau)

Referee: Piccolo L. (Sui)


	Aarau		Baden

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.7	3.75	Watch
	1.44	4.5	6
	1.78	4.1	4.24
	1.7	4.19	4.49
	1.67	3.8	4
	1.74	3.94	4	Watch
	1.76	3.8	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↑ (1.42)	4 ↓ (4.82)	4.33 ↓ (5.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aarau
55.2%

Draw
23.2%

Baden
21.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.2%

19.2%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.5%

18%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aarau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Aarau's form might have worsened.

Baden has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Baden's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (+14.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aarau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Baden than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Baden, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Aarau - Baden Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Aarau will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Baden will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Hirzel A. (G) 77. Theler S. 4. Hasani B. 2. Thaler M. 3. Conus B. 8. Jackle O. 70. Pappoe I. 11. Avdyli M. 10. Fazliu V. 23. Gjorgjev N. 21. Toure Y.	1. Spycher T. (G) 43. Gloor F. 5. Isufi E. 28. Eraslan E. 4. Muff P. 6. Cirelli S. 10. Laski R. 23. Spielmann M. 44. Hanke M. 26. Furrer G. 27. Giampa D.
Substitutes
44. Acquah D. 9. Demhasaj S. 25. Derbaci D. 45. Gashi A. (G) 38. Kessler R. 7. Khaled A. 17. Koide H. 22. Qollaku A. 19. Schwegler S.	14. Brack J. 15. Dzonlagic O. 13. Fontana J. 29. Kujovic A. 18. Mossi A. (G) 24. Pasche A. 22. Romano D. 3. Weilenmann Y. 11. Wiskemann M.
Coaches
Frei A.	Winsauer M.

Preview

Recent matches Aarau is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Baden has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Baden could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Aarau is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Aarau won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 17-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Aarau won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 12-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aarau
Swiss Challenge League
08.03.24	Schaffhausen - Aarau	1:1 ✺
01.03.24	Aarau - Neuchâtel Xamax	2:0 ✺
23.02.24	Wil 1900 - Aarau	1:1 ✺
16.02.24	Thun - Aarau	1:0 ✺
10.02.24	Aarau - Stade Nyonnais	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 TWTLW
- FC Baden
Swiss Challenge League
09.03.24	Baden - Vaduz	1:1 ✺
02.03.24	Thun - Baden	3:1 ✺
24.02.24	Baden - Stade Nyonnais	2:3 ✺
17.02.24	Baden - Schaffhausen	0:1 ✺
09.02.24	Sion - Baden	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.4 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
30.01.24	Baden - Aarau	1:2
21.07.23	Aarau - Baden	1:0
Club Friendly
21.01.20	Aarau - Baden	3:0
09.07.19	Baden - Aarau	2:3
08.07.15	Aarau - Baden	8:2

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