Match Info

Date: 16 April 2021, Friday


	Aarau		Chiasso

	1	X	2
	1.33	4.2	8.5	Watch
	1.4	4.1	6.5	Watch
	1.4	4.35	6.5
	1.35	4.7	6.8
	1.4	4.89	7.7
	1.38	4.5	7.5
	1.4	4.7	7.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.57)	4.49 ↑ (3.91)	7.3 ↑ (5.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Aarau
66.8%

Draw
20.5%

Chiasso
12.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

23.4%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.9%

19%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Aarau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Aarau's performance.

Chiasso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Chiasso might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aarau than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Aarau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chiasso than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	10.7%	17.9%

Aarau - Chiasso Predictions

Users Predictions: 28 users predict this event. Aarau will win (votes: 20 - 71.4%). Chiasso will win (votes: 5 - 17.9%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 10.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aarau: 54.7% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Aarau is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Recent matches Chiasso is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Chiasso could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Aarau is certain favorite.

Our prediction for today's Aarau to win the game is with odds 1.38.

Last 26 head-to-head matches Aarau won 13 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 8 matches and goals 44-38.

Including matches at home between the teams Aarau won 6 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 24-16.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Aarau
Swiss Challenge League
10.04.21	Neuchâtel Xamax - Aarau	0:1 ✺
Swiss Cup
06.04.21	Aarau - Winterthur	3:0 ✺
Swiss Challenge League
03.04.21	Aarau - Schaffhausen	1:0 ✺
19.03.21	Grasshoppers - Aarau	4:1 ✺
13.03.21	Aarau - Wil 1900	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWWLW
- FC Chiasso
Swiss Challenge League
09.04.21	Chiasso - Kriens	0:0 ✺
03.04.21	Winterthur - Chiasso	0:1 ✺
19.03.21	Chiasso - Thun	1:1 ✺
13.03.21	Lausanne Ouchy - Chiasso	3:0 ✺
Swiss Cup
10.03.21	Chiasso - Luzern	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.9 TWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
05.03.21	Chiasso - Aarau	2:0
08.12.20	Chiasso - Aarau	0:2
03.10.20	Aarau - Chiasso	2:1
21.07.20	Aarau - Chiasso	2:2
26.06.20	Chiasso - Aarau	1:3
15.12.19	Aarau - Chiasso	3:3
08.08.19	Chiasso - Aarau	4:2

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