Match Info

Serie D - Round 10

Date: 28 June 2025, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estádio Municipal Coaracy da Mata Fonseca (Arapiraca) 🌤️ ...


	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense		Lagarto

	1	X	2
	1.46	3.6	6.89
				Watch
	1.32	4.45	8.55
	1.46	4.1	5.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↑ (1.38)	4.05 ↓ (4.4)	7.08 ↑ (6.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
64.6%

Draw
22.5%

Lagarto
12.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

64.9%

20.4%

14.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.3%

19.6%

14.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

Lagarto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lagarto than the current prediction. (+1.2%)

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Lagarto Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, Will ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie D (Play Offs: 1/16~finals) and 5).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, ASA is the clear favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, ASA won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:5. (average 0.3:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, ASA won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense
Brazilian Serie D
15.06.25	Barcelona de Ilhéus - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:0 ✺
07.06.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - União Carmolandense	2:2 ✺
31.05.25	União Carmolandense - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:4 ✺
24.05.25	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Barcelona de Ilhéus	4:0 ✺
17.05.25	Lagarto - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTWWT
- Lagarto FC
Brazilian Serie D
16.06.25	Lagarto - Jequié	2:1 ✺
11.06.25	Juazeirense - Lagarto	2:1 ✺
31.05.25	Lagarto - Juazeirense	3:1 ✺
25.05.25	Jequié - Lagarto	3:1 ✺
17.05.25	Lagarto - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
17.05.25	Lagarto - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	0:0
26.06.22	Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Lagarto	1:1
07.05.22	Lagarto - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	4:0

Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense - Lagarto