Match Info

QSL - Round 19

Date: 18 March 2026, Wednesday

Location: Thani bin Jassim Stadium (Doha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA


	Al-Gharafa		Al-Ahli Doha

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.3	3
	2.15	3.45	2.98
	2.28	3.58	3.01
	2.1	3.67	3.11	Watch
	2.2	3.25	2.9
	2.15	3.4	2.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (1.9)	3.44 ↓ (3.89)	2.99 ↓ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Gharafa
42.6%

Draw
26.7%

Al-Ahli Doha
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.9%

23.9%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1%

22%

29.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Gharafa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al-Gharafa's form might have worsened.

Al-Ahli Doha has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Ahli Doha than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	0%	20%

Al Gharafa - Al Ahli Doha Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Al-Gharafa will win (votes: 4 - 80%). Al-Ahli Doha will win (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. N'Diaye K. (G) 18. Al Oui A. 24. Gunnarsson A. 6. Traore D. 26. Al-Ali R. A. 13. Sassi F. 57. Al Khlif Y. M. 11. Surag A. 8. Brahimi Y. (C) 7. Coman F. 9. Joselu	35. Badredlin M. (G) 41. Reyed A. 16. Tihi R. 5. Troost-Ekong W. 23. Radwan K. 3. Yassine I. 8. Fettouhi D. (C) 4. Ali T. 7. Draxler J. 14. Vlap M. 9. Yansane S.
Substitutes
33. Abdulnasir C. 90. Aladin H. 55. Al Rayami N. H. 14. Djalo A. 5. Essam M. 16. Friakh J. 34. Gamal M. (G) 99. Hamed J. 21. Kahiout H. (G) 97. Nasar Mohamed A. 12. Normann M. 22. Sudarmanto A.	70. Abdelrahman Y. 17. Alawi O. 21. Al Ishaq M. 88. Amraoui A. 6. Diallo I. 24. Doumbouya A. 29. Gannan S. 20. Mansour H. 12. Mohammed H. 33. Mohammed K. 11. Moustafa A. 1. Naim Y. (G)
Coaches
Martins P.	Ali Y.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
28', 1 - 0, Brahimi Y. (Penalty Awarded),
37', Gunnarsson A. 🟨,
45', Fettouhi D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 4)
46', Radwan K. ↓, Abdelrahman Y. ↑,
46', 1 - 1, Abdelrahman Y. ⚽, Yansane S. (A),
58', Al Khlif Y. M. ↓, Aladin H. ↑,
59', 1 - 2, Troost-Ekong W. ⚽, Vlap M. (A),
66', Coman F. ↓, Djalo A. ↑,
69', Ali T. 🟨,
72', Draxler J. ↓, Diallo I. ↑,
73', Ali T. ↓, Mansour H. ↑,
77', Vlap M. 🟨,
77', Joselu ↓, Hamed J. ↑,
87', 1 - 3, Vlap M. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Yassine I. ↓, Mohammed H. ↑,
88', Yansane S. ↓, Amraoui A. ↑,
90+6', 1 - 4, Abdelrahman Y. ⚽, Fettouhi D. (A),

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2 and 11 in the zone QSL (Relegation)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Gharafa won 3.

In recent matches, Al-Gharafa has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Al-Ahli Doha has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

Al-Gharafa could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Al-Gharafa won 11 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 39:22. (average 2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Gharafa won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 14:13. (average 1.6:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Al Ahli Doha	4	1	1	2	5:9	-4	4
9	Al Gharafa	4	1	1	2	4:8	-4	4

Last Results with these Odds

Al-Ahli Doha - the odds 3.41 are the expected chance of winning is 27.24%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL
12.03.26	Qatar SC - Al-Gharafa	2:0 ✺
26.02.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Rayyan	3:2 ✺
22.02.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Shamal	0:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
17.02.26	Al-Gharafa - Tractor Sazi	0:2 ✺
Qatar Emir Cup
14.02.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Kharitiyath	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWLLW
- Al-Ahli Doha
Qatar QSL
13.03.26	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Arabi Doha	1:1 ✺
27.02.26	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Shahania	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Al-Rayyan - Al-Ahli Doha	2:1 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
18.02.26	Al-Ahli Doha - Sepahan	1:0 ET ✺
Qatar Emir Cup
15.02.26	Al-Ahli Doha - Umm-Salal	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 TLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Qatar QSL
25.10.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Gharafa	1:3
22.01.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	2:0
18.08.24	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Gharafa	1:0
Qatar Emir Cup
08.05.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	4:3 ET
Qatar QSL
24.02.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	1:2
01.09.23	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Gharafa	1:4
03.03.23	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	1:1

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