Match Info

QSL - Round 7

Date: 22 October 2026, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Thani bin Jassim Stadium (Doha) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Qatar	19:45	Al Kass Six, Shoof


	Al-Gharafa		Al-Ahli Doha

	1	X	2
	1.98	3.60	2.90
	1.92	3.75	2.95
	2.20	3.85	3.20
	1.93	4.27	3.14	Watch
	2.17	3.45	3.15
	2.14	4.18	2.74	Watch
	2.13	3.70	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.07 ↓ (2.48)	3.83 ↑ (3.5)	2.99 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Gharafa
44.8%

Draw
24.2%

Al-Ahli Doha
31%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

36%

25.5%

38.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.5%

24.4%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Gharafa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al-Gharafa's performance.

Al-Ahli Doha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al-Ahli Doha might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Gharafa that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Ahli Doha than the current prediction. (+9.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Ahli Doha could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Al Gharafa - Al Ahli Doha Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Gharafa (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. N'Diaye K. (G) 11. Surag A. 4. Sano S. 6. Traore D. 23. Fadlalla S. 18. Al Oui A. 29. Diaz F. 96. Ounas A. 10. Bennacer I. 8. Brahimi Y. (C) 90. Aladin H.	13. Lingliz M. (G) 41. Reyed A. 16. Tihi R. 88. Amraoui A. 12. Al Minhali G. 33. Fettouhi D. (C) 77. Mohammed I. 27. Bourigeaud B. 7. Draxler J. 23. Sliti N. 10. Exposito E.
Substitutes
48. Abu Hamdeh F. A. 26. Al Ali R. 2. Al Rashidi A. 7. Coman F. 49. Faragalla R. 16. Friakh J. 22. Hassan A. 20. Jang Hyun-Soo 24. Kahiout H. (G) 31. Kone A. (G) 97. Mohamed A. 19. Saaed Ahmed Y.	70. Abdelrahman Y. 53. Ahmed S. (G) 15. Al-Ishaq Y. 75. Babiker N. 11. Gannan S. 18. Jassem Mohammed 6. Luiz Ceara 20. Mansour H. 49. Sassi Z. 5. Troost-Ekong W.
Coaches
Martins P.	Jimenez B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Sano S. ⚽, Bennacer I. (A),
22', Surag A. 🟨,
36', 2 - 0, Brahimi Y. ⚽, Ounas A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 2)
52', 2 - 1, Exposito E. ⚽, Sliti N. (A),
58', Mohammed I. ↓, Abdelrahman Y. ↑,
59', Aladin H. ↓, Coman F. ↑,
65', Bennacer I. ↓, Jang Hyun-Soo ↑,
78', Ounas A. ↓, Al Rashidi A. ↑,
78', Al Minhali G. ↓, Luiz Ceara ↑,
87', Amraoui A. ↓, Gannan S. ↑,
87', Tihi R. ↓, Sassi Z. ↑,
87', Bourigeaud B. ↓, Mansour H. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, Sliti N. ⚽, Luiz Ceara (A),

Preview

Crucial home points are at stake for a lower-table team looking to climb out of danger (ranked 10th and 7th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Gharafa won 3.

Both teams are currently going through a difficult patch of form.

Al-Ahli Doha could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Al-Gharafa is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Al-Gharafa has recorded 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 38:25 (averaging 1.9:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Al-Gharafa against this opponent, the record stands at 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 15:17 goals (averaging 1.5:1.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Al Ahli Doha	7	2	2	3	12:14	-2	8
10	Al Gharafa	7	1	3	3	8:13	-5	6

Last Results with these Odds

Al-Ahli Doha - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 38.49%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL
18.10.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Rayyan	0:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
12.10.26	Al-Gharafa - Esteghlal	1:2 ✺
Qatar QSL
08.10.26	Al-Wakrah - Al-Gharafa	3:2 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
01.10.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Mesaimeer	4:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
15.09.26	Al-Hilal - Al-Gharafa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLLWL
- Al-Ahli Doha
Qatar QSL
16.10.26	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Wakrah	0:3 ✺
10.10.26	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Sailiya	5:0 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
29.09.26	Al-Markhiya - Al-Ahli Doha	1:1 ✺
20.09.26	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Shahania	0:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
11.09.26	Al-Rayyan - Al-Ahli Doha	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Qatar QSL
18.03.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	1:4
25.10.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Gharafa	1:3
22.01.25	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	2:0
18.08.24	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Gharafa	1:0
Qatar Emir Cup
08.05.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	4:3 ET
Qatar QSL
24.02.24	Al-Gharafa - Al-Ahli Doha	1:2
01.09.23	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Gharafa	1:4

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