Match Info

QSL - Round 12

Date: 7 January 2026, Wednesday

Location: Hamad bin Khalifa Stadium (Doha)

Referee: Ahmed M. N. (Qat)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
Qatar	Al Kass One, Shoof


	Al-Ahli Doha		Al-Shamal

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.65	1.98
	3.37	4.05	1.9	Watch
	3.1	3.4	1.95
	3.34	3.7	2	Watch
	3.5	3.8	1.88
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.3 ↑ (3.21)	3.72 ↑ (3.65)	1.94 ↓ (2.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Ahli Doha
27.9%

Draw
24.7%

Al-Shamal
47.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

25.4%

45.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.7%

23.9%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Ahli Doha has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Al-Shamal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Ahli Doha than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Shamal than the current prediction. (-4.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	11.1%	55.6%

Al Ahli Doha - Al Shamal Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Al-Ahli Doha will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). Al-Shamal will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al-Shamal: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Shamal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Al-Shamal (1.99) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DC - Al-Ahli Doha (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Ahli Doha (votes: 1 - 25%). Al-Shamal (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Badredlin M. (C) 23. Radwan K. 21. Al Ishaq M. 88. Amraoui A. 12. Mohammed H. 8. Fettouhi D. 6. Diallo I. 20. Mansour H. 14. Vlap M. 10. Exposito E. 9. Yansane S.	95. Seck B. (G) 2. Awad M. 4. Termanini M. 24. Murillo J. 70. Khoder M. 6. Ebrahimi O. 12. Al Mannai M. 72. Tawfik A. 8. Collado A. 7. Mohamed O. 10. Belhanda Y. (C)
Substitutes
70. Abdelrahman Y. 17. Alawi O. 4. Ali T. 95. Al Nasr N. 24. Doumbouya A. 7. Draxler J. 29. Gannan S. 13. Lingliz M. (G) 33. Mohammed K. 1. Naim Y. (G) 15. Shahabi A. 3. Yassine I.	14. Ali O. 78. Al Saeed A. 18. Al Sulimane A. 19. Azadi F. 30. Barry O. (G) 81. Bounacer A. 3. El Hannach Y. 45. El Rady A. (G) 32. Majed I. 9. Qaderi A. 17. Seyam T.
Coaches
Ali Y.	Prats D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Yansane S. ⚽,
7', 1 - 1, Collado A. ⚽, Belhanda Y. (A),
9', 2 - 1, Yansane S. ⚽, Vlap M. (A),
10', Mohammed H. 🟨,
22', 3 - 1, Vlap M. ⚽, Exposito E. (A),
38', Diallo I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
49', 3 - 2, Mohamed O. ⚽,
56', Mohammed H. ↓, Yassine I. ↑,
56', Ebrahimi O. ↓, Bounacer A. ↑,
56', Khoder M. ↓, Seyam T. ↑,
66', Tawfik A. 🟨,
71', Al Ishaq M. 🟨,
74', 4 - 2, Yansane S. ⚽, Vlap M. (A),
79', Tawfik A. ↓, El Hannach Y. ↑,
89', Al Mannai M. ↓, Al Saeed A. ↑,
90+2', Exposito E. ↓, Gannan S. ↑,
90+5', Vlap M. ↓, Mohammed K. ↑,
90+6', Al Saeed A. 🟨,
90+8', Yansane S. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 9 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Ahli Doha won 2.

Al-Ahli Doha is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Al-Shamal's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Al-Ahli Doha may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Al-Shamal has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Al-Ahli Doha won 4 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 18:21. (average 1.3:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Al-Ahli Doha won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 1.2:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Shamal	4	2	2	0	10:6	4	8
8	Al Ahli Doha	4	1	1	2	5:9	-4	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Ahli Doha
Qatar QSL
29.12.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Umm-Salal	0:3 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
24.12.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Andijan	2:0 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
14.12.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Ahli Doha	0:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
21.11.25	Al Duhail - Al-Ahli Doha	2:3 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
11.11.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Wakrah	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.8 LWWWT
- Al-Shamal SC
Qatar QSL
29.12.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Sadd	0:3 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
14.12.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Ahli Doha	0:1 ✺
05.12.25	Al-Mesaimeer - Al-Shamal	1:1 ✺
28.11.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Rayyan	1:2 ✺
Qatar QSL
23.11.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Shahania	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.6 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Qatar QSL Cup
14.12.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Ahli Doha	0:1
Qatar QSL
14.08.25	Al-Shamal - Al-Ahli Doha	2:0
28.02.25	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Shamal	1:1
27.09.24	Al-Shamal - Al-Ahli Doha	2:4
29.03.24	Al-Shamal - Al-Ahli Doha	2:1
03.11.23	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Shamal	1:2
02.04.23	Al-Ahli Doha - Al-Shamal	0:1

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