Match Info

CAF Champions League - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 25 April 2025, Friday

Location: Cairo International Stadium (Cairo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 2, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport PSL
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1
Australia	beIN Connect
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 1, beIN Sports 2, Now Player
Indonesia	beIN Connect, Vidio
Israel	5 LIVE Israel
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2
Portugal	Sport TV5
Serbia	Arena Sport 5
South-africa	SABC 2, SABC 3, Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport PSL
Usa	Tubi TV


	Al Ahly Cairo		Mamelodi Sundowns

	1	X	2
	1.83	2.9	5	Watch
	1.72	3.1	4.75
	1.9	3.1	4.5	Watch
	1.88	3.04	5.01
	1.91	2.97	4.9	Watch
	1.73	3	5.5
	1.91	2.97	5.06	Watch
	1.9	3.1	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.69)	3.02 ↓ (3.1)	4.9 ↓ (5.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al Ahly Cairo
50.3%

Draw
30.7%

Mamelodi Sundowns
19%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.5%

29.7%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.4%

29.2%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al Ahly Cairo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

Mamelodi Sundowns has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al Ahly Cairo than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Al Ahly Cairo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mamelodi Sundowns than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.6%	7.7%	7.7%

Al Ahly Cairo - Mamelodi Sundowns Predictions

Users Predictions: Al Ahly Cairo will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Al Ahly Cairo will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. El Shenawy M. (C) 30. Hany M. 15. Dari A. 5. Rabia R. 6. Yasser Ibrahim 27. El Aash M. 29. Mohamed T. 24. Reda A. 13. Ateya M. 22. Ashour E. 11. Gradisar N.	30. Williams R. (C) 25. Mudau K. 20. Kekana G. 5. Lebusa M. 6. Modiba A. 11. Allende M. 4. Mokoena T. 26. Adams J. 10. Ribeiro L. 9. Arthur Sales 17. Matthews T.
Substitutes
9. Abou Ali W. 19. Afsha 34. Bencharki A. 14. El Shahat H. 17. El Solia A. 3. Kamal O. 20. Karim Nedved 31. Oufa Shobeir (G) 8. Tawfik A.	15. Aubaas B. J. 29. Lunga D. 21. Mkhulise S. 27. Morena T. 1. Onyango D. (G) 13. Rayners I. 38. Shalulile P. 24. Suarez L. 18. Zwane T.
Coaches
Koller M.	Cardoso M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
24', 1 - 0, Mohamed T. ⚽, Ashour E. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Rabia R. 🟨,
50', Ribeiro L. 🟨,
61', Gradisar N. ↓, Abou Ali W. ↑,
65', Adams J. ↓, Zwane T. ↑,
74', Ribeiro L. ↓, Rayners I. ↑,
74', Matthews T. ↓, Shalulile P. ↑,
79', Mohamed T. ↓, Bencharki A. ↑,
79', Ashour E. ↓, Tawfik A. ↑,
80', Lebusa M. ↓, Lunga D. ↑,
80', Modiba A. ↓, Arthur Sales ↑,
84', Rayners I. 🟨,
89', 1 - 1, Yasser Ibrahim (Own goal),
90+3', Hany M. ↓, Afsha ↑,
90+3', Reda A. ↓, El Shahat H. ↑,

Preview

1st leg result: 0-0. 2nd leg.

Al Ahly is Qualified for CAF Champions League (Play Offs )

Last 5 head-to-head matches Al Ahly won 0.

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Al Ahly could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Mamelodi Sundowns have a series of home games.

In this match Al Ahly is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Al Ahly won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 11:17 (average 0.8:1.3).

Including matches at home between the teams Al Ahly won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7:3 (average 1.2:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al Ahly Cairo
CAF Champions League
19.04.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Al Ahly Cairo	0:0 ✺
Egyptian League Cup
17.04.25	Al Ahly Cairo - Pharco	1:2 ✺
Egyptian Premier League
12.04.25	Pyramids - Al Ahly Cairo	1:1 ✺
CAF Champions League
08.04.25	Al-Hilal Club of Omdurman - Al Ahly Cairo	0:1 ✺
01.04.25	Al Ahly Cairo - Al-Hilal Club of Omdurman	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 TLTWW
- Mamelodi Sundowns
CAF Champions League
19.04.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Al Ahly Cairo	0:0 ✺
South African Nedbank Cup
13.04.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Kaizer Chiefs	1:2 ✺
CAF Champions League
08.04.25	Espérance ST - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:0 ✺
01.04.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Espérance ST	1:0 ✺
South African Nedbank Cup
28.03.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Sekhukhune United	1:0 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLTWW

Latest Head to Head

CAF Champions League
19.04.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Al Ahly Cairo	0:0
African Football League
01.11.23	Al Ahly Cairo - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:0
29.10.23	Mamelodi Sundowns - Al Ahly Cairo	1:0
CAF Champions League
11.03.23	Mamelodi Sundowns - Al Ahly Cairo	5:2
25.02.23	Al Ahly Cairo - Mamelodi Sundowns	2:2
12.03.22	Mamelodi Sundowns - Al Ahly Cairo	1:0
26.02.22	Al Ahly Cairo - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:1

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