Match Info

ASIA: AFC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE - ROUND 4

Date: 7 November 2023, Tuesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	SportKlub
Brazil	ESPN 4
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Croatia	SportKlub
Portugal	Canal 11
Serbia	SportKlub
Slovenia	SportKlub
Ukraine	Sport 2


	Al Duhail		Al-Nassr Riyadh

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.8	4.33	1.72	Watch
	4	4.33	1.72	Watch
	4.09	4.5	1.74
	4.09	4.35	1.75
	3.75	4.33	1.62
	3.98	4.35	1.72	Watch
	3.9	4.4	1.68
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.94 ↓ (6.05)	4.37 ↓ (5.4)	1.71 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al Duhail
23.7%

Draw
21.4%

Al-Nassr Riyadh
54.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.8%

17.7%

66.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15.5%

17.3%

68%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al Duhail has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Al Duhail's performance.

Al-Nassr Riyadh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al-Nassr Riyadh might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al Duhail than the current prediction. (-8.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al Duhail that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Nassr Riyadh than the current prediction. (+13.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Nassr Riyadh could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	10%	60%

Al Duhail - Al Nassr Riyadh Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Al Duhail will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Al-Nassr will win (votes: 6 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al-Nassr: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Zakaria S. (G) 33. Kim Moon-Hwan 35. Semedo R. 4. Aymen Y. 3. Al Naimi M. 23. Madibo A. O. 22. Bamba I. 7. Mohammed I. 9. Coutinho 11. Almoez Ali (C) 14. Olunga M.	44. Al Aqidi N. (G) 2. Al Ghannam S. (C) 5. Al Amri A. 4. Al Fatil M. 15. Telles A. 77. Brozovic M. 14. Al Naji S. 94. Talisca A. 25. Otavio 29. Ghareeb A. 10. Mane S.
Substitutes
99. Ellethy S. (G) 19. Lihadji I. 20. Madjer L. 16. Mohammed A. 6. Mohammed K. 17. Moustafa A. 29. Muntari M. 2. Musa M. 13. Saeed M. (G) 21. Said F.	33. Abdullah W. (G) 11. Al Ghannam K. 19. Al Hassan A. 30. Al Nemer M. 8. Al Sulaiheem A. 78. Lajami A. 3. Madu A. 16. Maran M. 36. Najjar R. (G) 24. Qasem M. 23. Yahya A.
Coaches
Galtier C.	Castro L.

Preview

Recent matches Al Duhail is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Al-Nassr is in a marvelous shape and in addition in the last match got series victories (in the last 5 games wins - 5).

Al-Nassr could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Al-Nassr have a series of home games.

In this match Al-Nassr is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Al Duhail won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12-7.

Including matches at home between the teams Al Duhail won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al Duhail
Qatar QSL
02.11.23	Al Duhail - Al-Rayyan	3:2 ✺
28.10.23	Al-Shamal - Al Duhail	1:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
24.10.23	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al Duhail	4:3 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
14.10.23	Al-Gharafa - Al Duhail	0:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
02.10.23	Al Duhail - Persepolis	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 WWLWL
- Al-Nassr Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
04.11.23	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Khaleej	2:0 ✺
Saudi King Cup
31.10.23	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Ettifaq Dammam	1:0 ET ✺
Saudi Professional League
28.10.23	Al-Feiha - Al-Nassr Riyadh	1:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
24.10.23	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al Duhail	4:3 ✺
Saudi Professional League
21.10.23	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Damac	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.5 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
24.10.23	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al Duhail	4:3
05.04.16	Al Duhail - Al-Nassr Riyadh	4:0
16.03.16	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al Duhail	1:1
06.05.15	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al Duhail	1:3
03.03.15	Al Duhail - Al-Nassr Riyadh	1:1

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