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Current Win Probability
Al-Gharafa 24.9%
Draw 23%
Al-Rayyan 52.1%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
21.2%
22.3%
56.5%
Our Initial ML Estimation
20.5%
21.6%
58.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Al-Gharafa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)
Al-Rayyan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (-4.4%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Rayyan than the current prediction. (+6.2%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Rayyan could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Al Gharafa - Al Rayyan Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. N'Diaye K. (G) 18. Al Oui A. 6. Traore D. 4. Sano S. 23. Fadlalla S. 13. Sassi F. 29. Diaz F. 96. Ounas A. 10. Bennacer I. 8. Brahimi Y. (C) 9. Magri F.
57. Abunada M. (G) 31. Amaro D. 13. Amaro A. 5. Garcia D. (C) 12. Al Minhali A. 4. De Sart J. 22. Al Ganehi A. 40. Gregore 25. Otavio 10. Roger Guedes 30. Alaaeldin A.
Substitutes
33. Abdulnasir C. 48. Abu Hamdeh F. A. 90. Aladin H. 2. Al Rashidi A. 7. Coman F. 5. Essam M. 16. Friakh J. 24. Kahiout H. (G) 31. Kone A. (G) 97. Mohamed A. 19. Saaed Ahmed Y. 11. Surag A.
3. Ahmed H. 21. Al Hassan I. 20. Ali 19. Al Rawi A. 17. Aymen Y. 23. Beldi S. (G) 33. Diakite D. 11. Gabriel Pereira 6. Hatem A. 35. Mazen S. (G) 9. Mitrovic A. 2. Yousif A.
Coaches
Martins P.
Moreno V.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
21', Al Oui A. 🟨,
44', Garcia D. 🟨,
45', De Sart J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Magri F. ↓, Aladin H. ↑,
50', Sassi F. 🟨,
65', Amaro D. 🟨,
69', Bennacer I. ↓, Surag A. ↑,
70', Al Minhali A. 🟨,
72', Traore D. ↓, Al Rashidi A. ↑,
74', De Sart J. ↓, Gabriel Pereira ↑,
74', Al Ganehi A. ↓, Hatem A. ↑,
85', Fadlalla S. 🟨,
85', Amaro A. ↓, Mitrovic A. ↑,
86', Alaaeldin A. ↓, Aymen Y. ↑,
90+6', Brahimi Y. 🟨,
90+6', Martins P. 🟥,
90+8', Sano S. 🟨,
Preview
A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 10th and 1st in the Promotion - AFC Champions League League phase).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Al-Gharafa won 4.
Recent results have been tough for Al-Gharafa (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Al-Rayyan has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Bookmakers give the edge to Al-Rayyan for this game.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Al-Gharafa has recorded 11 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 40:35 (averaging 2:1.8 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Al-Gharafa against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with 22:18 goals (averaging 2.4:2 per game).
Qatar
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N'Diaye K. (G) 
Sano S. 
Sassi F. 
Diaz F. 
Ounas A. 
Magri F. 
Amaro D. 
Garcia D. (C) 
De Sart J. 
Gregore 
Abu Hamdeh F. A. 
Aladin H. 
Coman F. 
Kone A. (G) 
Mohamed A. 
Diakite D. 
Mitrovic A. 
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