Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Thani bin Jassim Stadium (Doha) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	05:15	Paramount+
Bulgaria	21:15	Nova Sport
China	02:15	Migu
Croatia	20:15	SportKlub 4
Hong Kong	02:15	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	23:45	FanCode, FanCode
Ireland	19:15	Shabake 3
Japan	03:15	DAZN Japan
Pakistan	23:15	Tapmad
Slovenia	20:15	SportKlub 4
South Korea	03:15	Coupang Play
Turkey	21:15	Spor Smart 2


	Al-Gharafa		Esteghlal

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.90	3.40	2.30
	2.85	3.35	2.28	Watch
	3.14	3.5	2.31
	2.98	3.4	2.3	Watch
	3.05	3.4	2.25
	3.2	3.35	2.27	Watch
	2.85	3.4	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.22)	3.4 ↑ (3.38)	2.29 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Gharafa
31.3%

Draw
27.6%

Esteghlal
41%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.6%

26.7%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

27.8%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Gharafa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Al-Gharafa's form might have worsened.

Esteghlal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Esteghlal's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Al-Gharafa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Esteghlal than the current prediction. (-9.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Esteghlal, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Al Gharafa - Esteghlal Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Al-Gharafa will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Kone A. (G) 4. Sano S. 18. Al Oui A. 6. Traore D. 2. Al Rashidi A. 13. Sassi F. 29. Diaz F. 23. Fadlalla S. 96. Ounas A. 9. Magri F. 8. Brahimi Y. (C)	76. Farabbasi H. (G) 6. Fallah S. 33. Aghasi A. 5. Ashurmatov R. 2. Hardani S. 10. Masharipov J. 8. Razzaghinia A. 27. Goudarzi H. 4. Cheshmi R. (C) 11. Saharkhizan S. 87. Gholizadeh E.
Substitutes
90. Aladin H. 45. Al Mulla M. 7. Coman F. 5. Essam M. 49. Faragalla R. 16. Friakh J. 22. Hassan A. 27. Holgate M. 24. Kahiout H. (G) 97. Mohamed A. 1. N'Diaye K. (G) 11. Surag A.	88. Ahmadi M. 40. Ahoora N. (G) 7. Asani J. 44. Ebrahimi I. 80. Eslami M. 26. Heydari M. G. 60. Hosseinifar S. (G) 20. Koushki A. 9. Mohammadi M. 36. Mohebali A. 15. Zamani A.
Coaches
Martins P.	Bakhtiarizadeh S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
32', Razzaghinia A. ↓, Asani J. ↑,
37', 0 - 1, Asani J. ⚽, Hardani S. (A),
44', Masharipov J. 🟨,
45+4', Cheshmi R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Traore D. ↓, Aladin H. ↑,
48', 1 - 1, Sassi F. ⚽, Sano S. (A),
53', Masharipov J. ↓, Koushki A. ↑,
60', 1 - 2, Goudarzi H. ⚽,
64', Magri F. ↓, Surag A. ↑,
67', Asani J. ↓, Eslami M. ↑,
75', Sano S. ↓, Coman F. ↑,
75', Al Rashidi A. ↓, Holgate M. ↑,
80', Brahimi Y. ↓, Mohamed A. ↑,
82', Gholizadeh E. 🟨,

Preview

Recent results have been tough for Al-Gharafa (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Esteghlal shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Esteghlal could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Al-Gharafa has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Esteghlal - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 32.76%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL
08.10.26	Al-Wakrah - Al-Gharafa	3:2 ✺
Qatar QSL Cup
01.10.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Mesaimeer	4:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
15.09.26	Al-Hilal - Al-Gharafa	2:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
11.09.26	Al-Gharafa - Lusail City	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Al-Sadd - Al-Gharafa	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 LWLTL
- Esteghlal FC
Iran Pro League
08.10.26	Tractor Sazi - Esteghlal	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
14.09.26	Esteghlal - Al-Sadd	3:0 ✺
Iran Pro League
10.09.26	Esteghlal - Paykan	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Aluminium Arak - Esteghlal	0:0 ✺
02.09.26	Esteghlal - Persepolis	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWWTT

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
16.09.24	Esteghlal - Al-Gharafa	3:0

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