Match Info

Date: 12 October 2026, Monday


	Al-Gharafa		Esteghlal

	1	X	2
	2.22	3.38	2.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.22 (2.22)	3.38 (3.38)	2.75 (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 11%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Gharafa
40.6%

Draw
26.7%

Esteghlal
32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

27.8%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Al-Gharafa have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Esteghlal have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Gharafa than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Esteghlal than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

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Preview

Recent results have been tough for Al-Gharafa (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Esteghlal shows confident form ahead of this contest (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Esteghlal could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Al-Gharafa has recorded 0 wins, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 0:3.

Outrights of AFC Champions League for now

Al Gharafa: 0.62%

Last Results with these Odds

Esteghlal - the odds 2.75 are the expected chance of winning is 32.76%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Gharafa SC
Qatar QSL Cup
01.10.26	Al-Gharafa - Al-Mesaimeer	4:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
15.09.26	Al-Hilal - Al-Gharafa	2:1 ✺
Qatar QSL
11.09.26	Al-Gharafa - Lusail City	0:0 ✺
05.09.26	Al-Sadd - Al-Gharafa	4:1 ✺
Qatar Cup
01.09.26	Al-Sadd - Al-Gharafa	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 WLTLL
- Esteghlal FC
AFC Champions League
14.09.26	Esteghlal - Al-Sadd	3:0 ✺
Iran Pro League
10.09.26	Esteghlal - Paykan	1:0 ✺
06.09.26	Aluminium Arak - Esteghlal	0:0 ✺
02.09.26	Esteghlal - Persepolis	1:1 ✺
28.08.26	Foolad Khuzestan - Esteghlal	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWTTT

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
16.09.24	Esteghlal - Al-Gharafa	3:0

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