Match Info

Saudi Professional League - Round 6

Date: 23 October 2025, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SupeSport ESPN 1
Asia	JACO Middle East
Austria	DAZN
Brazil	BandSports, Canal GOAT
China	QQ Sports
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2
Hungary	Spiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
Kenya	Gotv
Nigeria	SupeSport ESPN 1
Portugal	Sport TV1
Romania	Prima Sport PPV 1
Saudi-arabia	Thmanyah
South-africa	SupeSport ESPN
Spain	Movistar Plus+ 2
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	S Sport+, Tabii
Usa	Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Soccer Plus, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, Fox


	Al-Najma		Al-Ahli Jeddah

	1	X	2
	9.5	7.5	1.2
	11.5	6.7	1.19
	12.19	7.26	1.18
	10.5	6.5	1.2	Watch
	7.6	5	1.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	10.26 ↑ (8.03)	6.59 ↑ (4.95)	1.22 ↓ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Najma
9.1%

Draw
14.2%

Al-Ahli Jeddah
76.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.5%

18.7%

69.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

11%

18%

72.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Najma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Al-Ahli Jeddah has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Najma than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Ahli Jeddah than the current prediction. (-4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
14.3%	0%	85.7%

Al Najma - Al Ahli Jeddah Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Ahli (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -4 - Al-Ahli (6.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Al-Ahli Jeddah will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Al-Ahli (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Victor Braga (G) 24. Al Hawsawi A. 4. Al Haleel N. 6. Al Shammari K. (C) 2. Vitao 8. Al Shammeri A. 7. Lazaro 20. Flores D. 98. Boutobba B. 9. Quioto R. 14. Jasim A.	16. Mendy E. (C) 27. Majrashi A. 28. Demiral M. 46. Hamidou R. 5. Sulaiman M. 79. Kessie F. 6. Atangana V. 7. Mahrez R. 10. Millot E. 47. Abu Al Shamat S. 9. Al Buraikan F.
Substitutes
19. Al Abdulraziq F. 77. Al Dubais H. 18. Al Harabi A. 50. Al Hawsawi N. 22. Al Muqaitib K. (G) 10. Al Mutairi F. 15. Al Najjar A. 55. Al Nakhli A. 23. Al Tulayhi R.	29. Abdulrahman M. 2. Al Hawsawi Z. 30. Al Johani Z. 88. Al Khaibari A. I. 14. Al Muwallad E. 19. Al Rashidi F. 1. Al Sanbi A. (G) 20. Matheus Goncalves 17. Toney I.
Coaches
Silva M.	Jaissle M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Hamidou R. 🟨,
34', 0 - 1, Al Buraikan F. ⚽,
38', Jasim A. 🟨,
42', Hamidou R. ↓, Al Hawsawi Z. ↑,
43', Millot E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Jasim A. ↓, Al Dubais H. ↑,
69', Al Buraikan F. ↓, Toney I. ↑,
69', Abu Al Shamat S. ↓, Matheus Goncalves ↑,
77', Al Haleel N. ↓, Al Harabi A. ↑,
84', Atangana V. 🟨,
84', Kessie F. ↓, Al Johani Z. ↑,
85', Al Hawsawi A. 🟨,
87', Al Hawsawi A. ↓, Al Tulayhi R. ↑,
90', Flores D. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 8).

Recent form of Al-Najma has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Al-Ahli's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Al-Ahli may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Al-Ahli is the obvious favorite.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Najma Unaizah
Saudi Professional League
17.10.25	Al-Kholood - Al-Najma	5:1 ✺
27.09.25	Al-Najma - Al-Feiha	1:2 ✺
Saudi King Cup
23.09.25	Al-Najma - Damac	2:1 ✺
Saudi Professional League
20.09.25	Al-Najma - Al-Ittihad Jeddah	0:1 ✺
14.09.25	Al-Riyadh - Al-Najma	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 LLWLL
- Al-Ahli Jeddah
AFC Champions League
20.10.25	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Gharafa	4:0 ✺
Saudi Professional League
17.10.25	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Shabab Riyadh	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
29.09.25	Al Duhail - Al-Ahli Jeddah	2:2 ✺
Saudi Professional League
26.09.25	Al Hazem - Al-Ahli Jeddah	0:2 ✺
FIFA Intercontinental Cup
23.09.25	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Pyramids	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 WTTWL

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