Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 10 March 2025, Monday

Location: King Saud University Stadium (Riyadh)

Referee: Tantashev I. (Uzb)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel, RCTI+
Israel	Sport 2
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Football, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 3
Netherlands	ESPN Extra
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean, ESPN 3 North
Philippines	Matchday+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Tving
Spain	LaLiga+
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sportkanalen
Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 2, Blue Sport 2
Turkey	Spor Smart 1
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	Paramount+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Disney+, Onefootball, Sport 1 Baltic, Triller TV+


	Al-Nassr Riyadh		Esteghlal

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.23	6.25	11.5	Watch
	1.33	5	8.2
	1.3	5.49	10.17
	1.29	5.31	9.82	Watch
	1.3	4.8	9
	1.36	4.87	9.07	Watch
	1.33	5	8.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.31 ↓ (1.35)	5.25 ↑ (4.9)	9.42 ↑ (6.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Al-Nassr Riyadh
72.1%

Draw
17.9%

Esteghlal
10%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.8%

18.7%

13.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.9%

17.9%

14.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Al-Nassr Riyadh has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Esteghlal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Al-Nassr Riyadh than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Al-Nassr Riyadh that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Esteghlal than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	25%	0%

Al Nassr Riyadh - Esteghlal Predictions

Users Predictions: Al-Nassr Riyadh will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Bento (G) 12. Boushal N. 3. Simakan M. 4. Al Fatil M. 83. Al Najdi S. 11. Brozovic M. 19. Al Hassan A. 10. Mane S. 23. Yahya A. 9. Duran J. 7. Ronaldo C. (C)	1. Hosseini H. (C) 10. Rezaeian R. 27. Hardani S. 4. Cheshmi R. 55. Raphael Silva 44. Sohrabian A. 87. Ahmadi M. 14. Niknafs Z. 22. Ndong D. 20. Koushki A. 11. Kojo J.
Substitutes
22. Al Harbi A. (G) 36. Al Najjar R. (G) 8. Al Sulaiheem A. 20. Angelo 29. Ghareeb A. 88. Hazazi B. 78. Lajami A. 16. Maran M. 50. Qasheesh M. 80. Wesley	9. Azadi M. R. 93. Eskandari H. 28. Hasheminasab M. 33. Jalali A. 12. Khaledabadi M. (G) 77. Masharipov J. 2. Moradmand M. 50. Nikpour A. (G) 88. Rezavand A. 99. Sadeghi A. 6. Salimi I. 15. Zamani A.
Coaches
Pioli S.	Bozovic M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Duran J. ⚽,
17', Ahmadi M. 🟨,
27', 2 - 0, Ronaldo C. (Pen),
45+2', Ahmadi M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Koushki A. ↓, Masharipov J. ↑,
46', Sohrabian A. ↓, Jalali A. ↑,
62', Kojo J. 🟨,
65', Kojo J. ↓, Azadi M. R. ↑,
68', Al Najdi S. 🟨,
69', Simakan M. ↓, Lajami A. ↑,
77', Al Hassan A. ↓, Al Sulaiheem A. ↑,
77', Yahya A. ↓, Angelo ↑,
78', Mane S. ↓, Wesley ↑,
84', 3 - 0, Duran J. ⚽, Angelo (A),
87', Duran J. ↓, Maran M. ↑,
89', Hardani S. ↓, Salimi I. ↑,
89', Niknafs Z. ↓, Zamani A. ↑,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-0.

Recent matches Al-Nassr is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Esteghlal is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Esteghlal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Al-Nassr is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Al-Nassr won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1:0 (average 0.5:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Al-Nassr Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
07.03.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Shabab Riyadh	2:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
03.03.25	Esteghlal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:0 ✺
Saudi Professional League
28.02.25	Al-Orobah - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:1 ✺
25.02.25	Al-Wahda Mecca - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:2 ✺
21.02.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Ettifaq Dammam	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 TTLWL
- Esteghlal FC
AFC Champions League
03.03.25	Esteghlal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:0 ✺
Iran Pro League
27.02.25	Persepolis - Esteghlal	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Esteghlal - Nassaji Mazandaran	1:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
18.02.25	Al-Rayyan - Esteghlal	0:2 ✺
Iran Hazfi Cup
13.02.25	Shams Azar Qazvin - Esteghlal	1:2 ET ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
03.03.25	Esteghlal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:0
22.10.24	Esteghlal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:1

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