Match Info

Persian Gulf Pro League - Round 12

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Azadi Stadium (Tehran)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ireland	Shabake 3


	Persepolis		Esteghlal

	1	X	2
	2.52	2.42	3.55
	2.52	2.4	3.7
	2.54	3.04	2.83	Watch
	2.6	2.5	3
	2.47	2.52	3.36	Watch
	2.71	2.2	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.56 ↑ (2.54)	2.51 ↓ (3.04)	3.32 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Persepolis
35.9%

Draw
36.5%

Esteghlal
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

30.6%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.8%

31.6%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Persepolis has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Esteghlal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Esteghlal might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Persepolis than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Esteghlal than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.6%	44.4%	0%

Persepolis - Esteghlal Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Persepolis will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 44.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Persepolis: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Persepolis (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Persepolis (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Persepolis (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Niazmand P. (G) 93. Aurier S. 6. Kanaani H. 8. Pouraliganji M. 4. Mohammadi M. 21. Omri M. 23. Sarlak M. 7. Rafiei S. 70. Urunov O. 2. Alishah O. 9. Alipour A.	1. Adan A. (G) 2. Hardani S. 5. Ashurmatov R. 19. Fallah S. 27. Goudarzi H. 22. Ndong D. 8. Razzaghinia A. 70. Asani J. 17. Munir El Haddadi 20. Koushki A. 11. Saharkhizan S.
Substitutes
5. Abarghouei H. 11. Ahmadzadeh F. 37. Barajeh Y. . Bifouma T. 14. Enayatzadeh A. 44. Homaeifard A. 69. Kazemian A. 77. Khodabandelou M. 22. Rafiei A. (G) 76. Sahraei S. 80. Salmani Y.	7. Azadi M. R. 4. Cheshmi R. 12. Djenepo M. 80. Eslami M. 76. Farabbasi H. (G) 55. Gholami A. 87. Gholizadeh E. 60. Hosseinifar S. (G) 33. Jalali A. 10. Rezaeian R. 15. Zamani A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Rafiei S. 🟨,
66', Alishah O. ↓, Ahmadzadeh F. ↑,
70', Munir El Haddadi ↓, Gholizadeh E. ↑,
75', Omri M. ↓, Bifouma T. ↑,
90+1', Hardani S. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Persepolis won 3.

Right now, both teams are showing solid form.

Esteghlal may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Esteghlal has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Persepolis won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 22:18. (average 1.1:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Persepolis won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:9. (average 1.2:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Persepolis FC
Iran Pro League
28.11.25	Shams Azar Qazvin - Persepolis	1:2 ✺
07.11.25	Persepolis - Esteghlal Khuzestan	3:0 ✺
30.10.25	Tractor Sazi - Persepolis	1:1 ✺
24.10.25	Persepolis - Zob Ahan	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Kheybar Khorramabad - Persepolis	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTWL
- Esteghlal FC
Iran Pro League
30.11.25	Esteghlal - Foolad Khuzestan	1:0 ✺
AFC Champions League 2
26.11.25	Esteghlal - Al Wasl	1:1 ✺
Iran Hazfi Cup
21.11.25	Esteghlal - Padyab Khalkhal	2:1 ET ✺
AFC Champions League 2
05.11.25	Al-Wehdat - Esteghlal	1:1 ✺
Iran Pro League
31.10.25	Esteghlal - Aluminium Arak	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Iran Pro League
27.02.25	Persepolis - Esteghlal	2:1
25.09.24	Esteghlal - Persepolis	0:1
13.03.24	Esteghlal - Persepolis	0:0
14.12.23	Persepolis - Esteghlal	1:1
Iran Hazfi Cup
31.05.23	Esteghlal - Persepolis	1:2 ET
Iran Pro League
23.04.23	Persepolis - Esteghlal	1:0
20.12.22	Esteghlal - Persepolis	2:2

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