Match Info

ASIA: AFC Champions League - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 3 March 2025, Monday

Location: Azadi Stadium (Tehran)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Meraj Sport, Meraj TV, Solh Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, beIN Sports MENA AFC 1, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, STARZPLAY, TOD
Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 2
Georgia	Silk Sport 1
Germany	Sportdigital FUSSBALL
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	RCTI+
Israel	Sport 2
Kazakhstan	Sport+
Kyrgyzstan	KTRK Sports
Lithuania	Sport 1
Macao	Macau Cable TV 34 Football
Malaysia	Astro Arena 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	Matchday+, Premier Football
Portugal	Canal 11
Russia	Okko Sport
South-korea	Tving, tvN Sports
Sweden	TV4 Play
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	FPT Play
World	Disney+, Onefootball, Triller TV+


	Esteghlal		Al-Nassr Riyadh

	1	X	2
				Watch
				Watch
	3.95	2.95	1.94
	4.68	3.24	1.94
	4.52	3.19	1.88	Watch
	4.2	3	1.95
	4.53	3.22	1.92	Watch
	3.95	2.95	1.94
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.31 ↑ (4.25)	3.09 ↓ (4.05)	1.93 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Esteghlal
21.6%

Draw
30.1%

Al-Nassr Riyadh
48.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.1%

23.1%

54.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.6%

23.6%

56.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Esteghlal has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

Al-Nassr Riyadh has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Al-Nassr Riyadh might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

The ML Model estimate for Esteghlal aligns with the current prediction.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Al-Nassr Riyadh than the current prediction. (+7.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Al-Nassr Riyadh could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
26.7%	26.7%	46.7%

Esteghlal - Al Nassr Riyadh Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Esteghlal will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Al-Nassr will win (votes: 7 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 28.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Al-Nassr: 23.8% – 76.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Hosseini H. (C) 10. Rezaeian R. 27. Hardani S. 4. Cheshmi R. 55. Raphael Silva 44. Sohrabian A. 87. Ahmadi M. 88. Rezavand A. 22. Ndong D. 20. Koushki A. 9. Azadi M. R.	24. Bento (G) 12. Boushal N. 3. Simakan M. 4. Al Fatil M. (C) 83. Al Najdi S. 23. Yahya A. 11. Brozovic M. 19. Al Hassan A. 20. Angelo 9. Duran J. 10. Mane S.
Substitutes
93. Eskandari H. 28. Hasheminasab M. 12. Khaledabadi M. (G) 11. Kojo J. 77. Masharipov J. 2. Moradmand M. 14. Niknafs Z. 50. Nikpour A. (G) 99. Sadeghi A. 6. Salimi I. 15. Zamani A.	22. Al Harbi A. (G) 36. Al Najjar R. (G) 8. Al Sulaiheem A. 54. bin Salem F. 58. Hazazi M. 16. Maran M. 50. Qasheesh M. 80. Wesley
Coaches
Bozovic M.	Pioli S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Azadi M. R. ↓, Kojo J. ↑,
71', Ahmadi M. ↓, Masharipov J. ↑,
77', Angelo ↓, Wesley ↑,

Preview

1st leg.

Esteghlal is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Al-Nassr is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Esteghlal could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently opponents have a series of guest games.

In this match Al-Nassr is a favorite.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Esteghlal won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Including matches at home between the teams Esteghlal won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Esteghlal FC
Iran Pro League
27.02.25	Persepolis - Esteghlal	2:1 ✺
22.02.25	Esteghlal - Nassaji Mazandaran	1:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
18.02.25	Al-Rayyan - Esteghlal	0:2 ✺
Iran Hazfi Cup
13.02.25	Shams Azar Qazvin - Esteghlal	1:2 ET ✺
Iran Pro League
07.02.25	Mes Rafsanjan - Esteghlal	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LWWWT
- Al-Nassr Riyadh
Saudi Professional League
28.02.25	Al-Orobah - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:1 ✺
25.02.25	Al-Wahda Mecca - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:2 ✺
21.02.25	Al-Nassr Riyadh - Al-Ettifaq Dammam	2:3 ✺
AFC Champions League
17.02.25	Persepolis - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:0 ✺
Saudi Professional League
13.02.25	Al-Ahli Jeddah - Al-Nassr Riyadh	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLTW

Latest Head to Head

AFC Champions League
22.10.24	Esteghlal - Al-Nassr Riyadh	0:1

Upcoming Matches