Match Info

WE League Cup Women - Round 5

Date: 4 October 2026, Sunday


	Albirex Niigata		Cerezo Osaka

	1	X	2
	2.30	3.10	2.70
	2.35	3.10	2.70
	2.40	3.35	2.81
	2.35	3.25	2.78	Watch
	2.35	2.90	2.75
	2.37	3.29	2.83
	2.34	3.15	2.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.29)	3.16 ↓ (3.3)	2.75 ↓ (2.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Albirex Niigata
38.5%

Draw
28.6%

Cerezo Osaka
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

27.8%

32.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.6%

26.7%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Albirex Niigata has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Cerezo Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Albirex Niigata than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cerezo Osaka than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Yamamoto Y. ⚽,
23', 1 - 1, Wada M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
64', 1 - 2, Miyuka H. ⚽,

Preview

Two table neighbours face each other in what promises to be a tight contest (ranked 10th and 9th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Albirex Niigata won 3.

Both teams have shown inconsistent performances in recent matches.

Recently, Cerezo Osaka has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 13 head-to-head meetings, Albirex Niigata has recorded 6 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 15:13 (averaging 1.2:1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Albirex Niigata against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses, with 6:5 goals (averaging 0.9:0.7 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	C-Osaka W	5	3	0	2	9:8	1	9
10	Albirex Niigata W	5	1	0	3	7:8	-1	5

Last Results with these Odds

Cerezo Osaka - the odds 2.84 are the expected chance of winning is 32.25%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Albirex Niigata Ladies
Japan WE League Cup Women
27.09.26	Albirex Niigata - Urawa Red Diamonds	2:1 penalties ✺
23.09.26	NTV Beleza - Albirex Niigata	1:3 ✺
19.09.26	MyNavi Sendai - Albirex Niigata	1:0 ✺
12.09.26	Albirex Niigata - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:3 ✺
Japan WE League Women
05.09.26	Omiya Ardija - Albirex Niigata	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.7 WWLLL
- Cerezo Osaka Women
Japan WE League Cup Women
27.09.26	Cerezo Osaka - NTV Beleza	1:4 ✺
23.09.26	Cerezo Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Nagano Parceiro - Cerezo Osaka	0:1 ✺
13.09.26	Cerezo Osaka - Chifure AS Elfen Saitama	2:3 ✺
Japan WE League Women
05.09.26	Cerezo Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Japan WE League Cup Women
07.03.26	Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka	0:1
Japan WE League Women
21.02.26	Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata	1:3
Japan WE League Cup Women
30.11.25	Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata	2:1
Japan WE League Women
20.09.25	Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka	3:1
01.03.25	Cerezo Osaka - Albirex Niigata	1:2
20.09.24	Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka	0:0
24.03.24	Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka	1:0

Albirex Niigata - Cerezo Osaka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide