Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 24

Date: 15 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo (Alcorcón)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Alcorcón		Real Murcia

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.7	3.4
	2.3	2.78	3.35
	2.24	2.89	3.64
	2.32	2.76	3.62	Watch
	2.2	2.63	3.4
	2.23	2.67	3.63
	2.2	2.71	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.54)	2.73 ↑ (2.61)	3.51 ↑ (3.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alcorcón
40.7%

Draw
33.3%

Real Murcia
26%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.6%

35.6%

27.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.6%

34.7%

27.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alcorcón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alcorcón than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Alcorcón - Real Murcia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ayesa G. (G) 6. Perez I. 4. Rojas J. 23. Navarro D. 15. Rodriguez S. 17. Ouhdadi O. 5. Rai 10. Ballesteros Y. 14. Vacas L. 8. Martinez B. 11. Kopotun V.	1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 18. Vicente D. 3. Romero C. 15. Gil O. 11. Bustos A. 17. Narro V. 21. Djanbou S. 20. Zenitagoia E. 34. Sanchez J. G. 19. Jorquera Romero J. 8. Ortuno J.
Substitutes
18. Aguado T. 7. Aparicio E. 35. Arcos D. 22. Blanco R. 9. Carmona M. 2. Domingo Ciuraneta P. 13. Marti O. (G) 3. Nieto S. 28. Santana dos Santos E. L. 16. Tounkara N.	27. Alonso 16. Antonio David 9. Benito P. A. P. 23. Bosilj D. 42. Gimenez Sanchez E. 10. Gomez I. 12. Joao Pedro Palmberg 22. Juan Carlos 14. Leon P. 13. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 39. Sylla A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Gazzaniga G. 🟥,
5', Zenitagoia E. ↓, Pineiro del Alamo D. ↑,
21', Martinez B. ↓, Carmona M. ↑,
27', Navarro D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ortuno J. ↓, Gomez I. ↑,
46', Bustos A. ↓, Bosilj D. ↑,
46', Navarro D. ↓, Domingo Ciuraneta P. ↑,
53', 1 - 0, Pineiro del Alamo D. (Own goal),
57', Vicente D. 🟨,
62', Narro V. ↓, Benito P. A. P. ↑,
66', Vacas L. ↓, Blanco R. ↑,
78', Djanbou S. ↓, Leon P. ↑,
81', Kopotun V. ↓, Tounkara N. ↑,
81', Ballesteros Y. ↓, Aguado T. ↑,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 14 and 9).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alcorcón won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Murcia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Alcorcón is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Alcorcón won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:9. (average 1.2:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Alcorcón won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 1.5:0.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Alcorcon	6	3	3	0	13:4	9	12
4	Murcia	6	4	0	2	10:7	3	12

Last Results with these Odds

Alcorcón - the odds 2.54 are the expected chance of winning is 36.58%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Real Murcia - the odds 3.34 are the expected chance of winning is 27.82%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Alcorcón
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
07.02.26	Atlético Madrid B - Alcorcón	0:0 ✺
01.02.26	Alcorcón - Gimnástic de Tarragona	1:1 ✺
24.01.26	Sabadell - Alcorcón	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Alcorcón - Antequera	2:1 ✺
10.01.26	CE Europa - Alcorcón	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 TTTWT
- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
01.02.26	Teruel - Real Murcia	0:0 ✺
25.01.26	Real Murcia - Algeciras	0:2 ✺
18.01.26	Ibiza - Real Murcia	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Real Murcia - Hércules	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Atlético Sanluqueño - Real Murcia	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
30.11.25	Real Murcia - Alcorcón	2:1
20.04.25	Alcorcón - Real Murcia	2:1
06.10.24	Real Murcia - Alcorcón	3:1
Club Friendly
10.08.22	Real Murcia - Alcorcón	1:1
Spanish LaLiga2
27.04.14	Real Murcia - Alcorcón	1:1
24.11.13	Alcorcón - Real Murcia	0:0
31.03.13	Real Murcia - Alcorcón	1:1

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