Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 21

Date: 25 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Enrique Roca (Murcia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+, Movistar Plus+


	Real Murcia		Algeciras

	1	X	2
	1.83	2.9	4.5
	1.9	3.05	4.25
	1.95	3.05	4.41
	1.91	3.23	4.24	Watch
	1.85	2.88	4
	1.91	3.02	4.68
	1.88	2.9	4.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.76)	3 ↓ (3.03)	4.33 ↓ (5.11)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Murcia
48.4%

Draw
30.5%

Algeciras
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.9%

30.2%

17.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.5%

29.4%

18.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Murcia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Algeciras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Murcia than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Algeciras than the current prediction. (-2.7%)

Real Murcia - Algeciras Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.5 - Algeciras (1.83) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Algeciras (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gazzaniga G. (G) 18. Vicente D. 34. Sanchez J. G. 15. Gil O. 2. Mier J. 9. Benito P. A. P. 21. Djanbou S. 10. Gomez I. 17. Narro V. 20. Zenitagoia E. 23. Bosilj D.	1. Moreno I. (G) 15. Ruiz V. 6. Mayorga A. 16. Gomez A. 3. Marquez J. 10. Garrido D. 8. Turrillo I. 20. Alamo J. 19. Obeng I. 21. Garcia J. 9. Gonzaga M.
Substitutes
32. Adebayo K. 16. Antonio David 6. Gonzalez A. 12. Joao Pedro Palmberg 19. Jorquera Romero J. 22. Juan Carlos 35. Kajaia S. (G) 14. Leon P. 39. Sylla A.	22. Adot Barandiaran P. A. 2. Arauz C. 17. Aviles J. 13. Casado S. (G) 24. Castro O. 4. Coch A. 14. Nader A. 7. Rastrojo J. 23. Riley J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Gonzaga M. ⚽,
35', Bosilj D. 🟨,
45', 🟨,
45+4', Ruiz V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Djanbou S. ↓, Juan Carlos ↑,
54', Turrillo I. ↓, Castro O. ↑,
57', 0 - 2, Garrido D. ⚽,
57', Zenitagoia E. ↓, Sylla A. ↑,
57', Mier J. ↓, Joao Pedro Palmberg ↑,
64', Benito P. A. P. ↓, Jorquera Romero J. ↑,
67', Obeng I. ↓, Rastrojo J. ↑,
79', Gil O. ↓, Antonio David ↑,
80', Garcia J. ↓, Arauz C. ↑,
80', Garrido D. ↓, Aviles J. ↑,
80', Marquez J. ↓, Adot Barandiaran P. A. ↑,
90+1', Sylla A. 🟨,
90+6', Gonzaga M. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera RFEF ~ Group 1 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Murcia won 3.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, Murcia is the team to beat.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Murcia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 1.3:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Murcia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:3. (average 1.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Murcia	6	4	0	2	10:7	3	12
15	Algeciras	6	2	1	3	8:11	-3	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Murcia
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.01.26	Ibiza - Real Murcia	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Real Murcia - Hércules	1:1 ✺
04.01.26	Atlético Sanluqueño - Real Murcia	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
30.12.25	UCAM Murcia - Real Murcia	3:2 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
21.12.25	Real Murcia - CE Europa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LTWLW
- Algeciras CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
18.01.26	Algeciras - Betis B	2:0 ✺
11.01.26	Tarazona - Algeciras	2:2 ✺
03.01.26	Algeciras - Sevilla B	3:0 ✺
19.12.25	Algeciras - Villarreal B	0:0 ✺
14.12.25	Teruel - Algeciras	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 WTWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
28.09.25	Algeciras - Real Murcia	1:0
24.05.25	Real Murcia - Algeciras	2:1
16.11.24	Algeciras - Real Murcia	1:1
07.04.24	Algeciras - Real Murcia	0:1
15.10.23	Real Murcia - Algeciras	1:0
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 4
19.01.20	Algeciras - Real Murcia	0:1
01.09.19	Real Murcia - Algeciras	1:1

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