Match Info

Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 37

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Nuevo Mirador (Algeciras)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	Footballclub, LaLiga+


	Algeciras		Hércules

	1	X	2
	1.6	3.8	4.75
	1.58	3.8	5.15
	1.61	3.8	5.2
	2.07	3.28	3.48	Watch
	1.6	3.3	5
	1.58	3.62	5.27
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.9)	3.6 ↑ (3.07)	4.81 ↑ (4.05)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Algeciras
55.2%

Draw
25.6%

Hércules
19.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

29.6%

22.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.4%

29.3%

22.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Algeciras has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Algeciras's performance.

Hércules has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Algeciras than the current prediction. (-6.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Algeciras that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hércules than the current prediction. (+3%)

Algeciras - Hércules Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Moreno I. (G) 22. Adot Barandiaran P. A. (C) 16. Gomez A. 6. Mayorga A. 3. Marquez J. 17. Aviles J. 24. Castro O. 20. Alamo J. 19. Obeng I. 10. Garrido D. 21. Garcia J.	1. Trujillo Hernandez A. C. (G) 2. Vazquez S. 4. Rentero J. 3. Alvarez A. 21. Retu 7. Escudero A. 8. Mangada C. 37. Puch Herrantz M. 10. Espinosa N. 19. Sol F. 11. Ropero U.
Substitutes
. Araujo F. 2. Arauz C. 13. Casado S. (G) 4. Coch A. 9. Gonzaga M. 14. Nader A. 23. Riley J. 15. Ruiz V. 8. Turrillo I.	31. Abdelilah H. 22. Aranda A. 17. De Leon J. 16. Fede 28. Galvan J. 35. Lidon A. (G) 5. Monsalve N. 26. Sergio G. F. 32. Valverde J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', 0 - 1, Sol F. ⚽,
31', Aviles J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
51', 🟨,
56', Ropero U. ↓, Sergio G. F. ↑,
59', Garrido D. ↓, Gonzaga M. ↑,
72', Escudero A. ↓, Fede ↑,
72', Espinosa N. ↓, Galvan J. ↑,
78', 0 - 2, Fede ⚽,
79', Adot Barandiaran P. A. ↓, Riley J. ↑,
86', Aviles J. ↓, Arauz C. ↑,
87', Castro O. 🟨,
89', 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 and 9)

Algeciras is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Hércules's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Algeciras may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Algeciras is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Algeciras won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:4. (average 1.7:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Algeciras won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Hercules	6	3	1	2	5:5	0	10
15	Algeciras	6	2	1	3	8:11	-3	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Algeciras CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
09.05.26	Atlético Sanluqueño - Algeciras	0:1 ✺
01.05.26	Algeciras - Cartagena	2:2 ✺
26.04.26	Sevilla B - Algeciras	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Algeciras - Tarazona	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Villarreal B - Algeciras	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WTWWL
- Hércules CF
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
09.05.26	Hércules - Ibiza	2:1 ✺
03.05.26	Villarreal B - Hércules	1:0 ✺
26.04.26	Hércules - Teruel	3:1 ✺
19.04.26	Sabadell - Hércules	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Hércules - Atlético Sanluqueño	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
12.09.25	Hércules - Algeciras	0:1
11.05.25	Hércules - Algeciras	1:2
11.10.24	Algeciras - Hércules	2:3

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