The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Alianza Valledupar 23.8%
Draw 27.6%
Junior Barranquilla 48.6%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
34.3%
29.5%
36.3%
Our Initial ML Estimation
32.5%
31.1%
38.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Alianza Valledupar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alianza Valledupar's form might have worsened.
Junior Barranquilla has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Junior Barranquilla's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alianza Valledupar than the current prediction. (+8.7%)
Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Alianza Valledupar, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Junior Barranquilla than the current prediction. (-10.3%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Junior Barranquilla, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
40. Beltran E. (G) 23. Alba I. 22. Figueroa J. 32. Viveros J. 33. Lasso J. 6. Meza Mercado E. W. 7. Castillo J. 17. Pardo F. (C) 10. Quinones D. 8. Munoz J. 18. Vergara C.
1. Silveira M. (G) 3. Herrera E. 98. Pena J. (C) 5. Rivera D. 26. Suarez Y. 14. Rios J. 22. Rivas J. 77. Barrios C. 20. Sarmiento J. 88. Castrillon B. 9. Paiva G.
Substitutes
55. Fernandez W. 77. Martinez M. 3. Moreno K. 88. Palacios L. 25. Perez Balcazar J. E. 26. Rada H. 11. Viafara B. 14. Villegas C. 1. Wallens J. (G)
80. Angel Bernal F. S. 25. Caicedo D. 28. Celis G. 19. Fydriszewski F. 29. Gutierrez T. 30. Martinez J. (G) 15. Munive J. D. 7. Rivera H. 38. Shmalbach A.
Coaches
Ayala C.
Viera S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Meza Mercado E. W. ⚽,
18', Meza Mercado E. W. ↓, Fernandez W. ↑,
26', Alba I. 🟨,
45', Pardo F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Rivas J. ↓, Rivera H. ↑,
46', Paiva G. ↓, Fydriszewski F. ↑,
47', Rios J. 🟨,
50', Fydriszewski F. 🟨,
57', Vergara C. 🟨,
63', Barrios C. ↓, Caicedo D. ↑,
63', Sarmiento J. ↓, Gutierrez T. ↑,
71', Lasso J. 🟥,
73', Munoz J. ↓, Perez Balcazar J. E. ↑,
73', Pardo F. ↓, Villegas C. ↑,
79', Herrera E. ↓, Munive J. D. ↑,
80', Munive J. D. 🟨,
80', Quinones D. ↓, Moreno K. ↑,
80', Vergara C. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
90+6', Martinez M. 🟨,
Preview
We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 20 and 18).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 0.
Alianza is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Junior's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
Junior may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Junior has had a series of home games.
Junior might have a minor edge in this game.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alianza won 2 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 12:31. (average 0.6:1.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Alianza won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 4:14. (average 0.4:1.6).
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Beltran E. (G) 
Silveira M. (G) 
Paiva G. 
Fydriszewski F. 
