Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 36

Date: 16 May 2024, Thursday 🏁 Finished

Location: Power Horse Stadium (Almería) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Rojas J. A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	SuperSport
Argentina	16:30	DirecTV
Australia	05:30	Optus Sport
Bosnia And Herzegovina	21:30	Arena Sport
Brazil	16:30	ESPN
Bulgaria	22:30	Max Sport 4
Croatia	21:30	Arena Sport
Czech Republic	21:30	Nova Sport 4
Denmark	21:30	TV2 Sport X
Finland	22:30	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu
France	21:30	beIN Sports
Germany	21:30	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	22:30	Nova Sports
Malaysia	03:30	Astro
Poland	21:30	CANAL+ Sport
Romania	22:30	Prima Sport 1
Serbia	21:30	Arena Sport
Slovenia	21:30	Arena Sport
Sweden	21:30	TV4


	Almería		Barcelona

	1	X	2
	7.5	5.25	1.38	Watch
	7	5.5	1.37
	8	5.5	1.36	Watch
	7.53	5.7	1.38
	7.53	5.62	1.39
	7.5	5.8	1.33
	8	5.92	1.39	Watch
	7.5	5.7	1.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.57 ↑ (5.48)	5.62 ↑ (4.88)	1.37 ↓ (1.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almería
12.7%

Draw
17.1%

Barcelona
70.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

17.4%

19.6%

63%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.9%

17.1%

55.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Barcelona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Barcelona's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Almería, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (-15.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Barcelona, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	1.3%	91%

Almería - Barcelona Predictions

Users Predictions: Barcelona will win (70 of 77 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 84.49% – 97.33%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Maximiano L. (G) 18. Pubill M. 22. Montes C. 21. Chumi 24. Langa B. 8. Viera J. 26. Pena M. 5. Robertone L. (C) 12. Leo Baptistao 15. Lozano C. 10. Embarba A.	1. ter Stegen M. (G) 23. Kounde J. 33. Cubarsi P. 5. Martinez I. 39. Fort H. 8. Pedri 20. Roberto S. (C) 16. Lopez F. 27. Yamal L. 9. Lewandowski R. 7. Torres F.
Substitutes
19. Arribas S. 20. Centelles A. 23. Kone I. 6. Lopy D. 1. Marino D. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 11. Melero G. 17. Pozo A. 16. Radovanovic A. 38. Romero L. 27. Sanz P. 9. Suarez L.	17. Alonso M. 2. Cancelo J. 30. Casado M. 15. Christensen A. 14. Joao Felix 31. Kochen D. (G) 13. Pena I. (G) 11. Raphinha 18. Romeu O. 19. Vitor Roque
Coaches
Mel P.	Xavi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
14', 0 - 1, Lopez F. ⚽, Fort H. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
59', Leo Baptistao ↓, Romero L. ↑,
59', Lozano C. ↓, Suarez L. ↑,
67', 0 - 2, Lopez F. ⚽, Roberto S. (A),
68', Viera J. ↓, Melero G. ↑,
68', Roberto S. ↓, Christensen A. ↑,
68', Lewandowski R. ↓, Joao Felix ↑,
73', Torres F. ↓, Vitor Roque ↑,
74', Fort H. ↓, Cancelo J. ↑,
80', Embarba A. ↓, Centelles A. ↑,
80', Pubill M. ↓, Pozo A. ↑,
83', Pedri ↓, Romeu O. ↑,
85', Vitor Roque 🟨,

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Group Stage: )).

Almería is Relegated to LaLiga2

Barcelona is Qualified for Champions League (Group Stage )

Last 5 head-to-head matches Almería won 1.

Almería is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Barcelona is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Almería could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Barcelona is certain favorite.

There will not play in Almería: Ramazani L. (Red Card)

There will not play in Barcelona: Balde A. (Muscle Injury) Gavi (Knee Injury) Gundogan I. (Yellow Cards) de Jong F. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Barcelona: Araujo R. (Injury)

Last 7 head-to-head matches Almería won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 5-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Almería won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga
12.05.24	Betis - Almería	3:2 ✺
05.05.24	Rayo Vallecano - Almería	0:1 ✺
27.04.24	Almería - Getafe	1:3 ✺
21.04.24	Almería - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
14.04.24	Real Sociedad - Almería	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.1 LWLLT
- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
13.05.24	Barcelona - Real Sociedad	2:0 ✺
04.05.24	Girona - Barcelona	4:2 ✺
29.04.24	Barcelona - Valencia	4:2 ✺
21.04.24	Real Madrid - Barcelona	3:2 ✺
UEFA Champions League
16.04.24	Barcelona - Paris Saint-Germain	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
20.12.23	Barcelona - Almería	3:2
26.02.23	Almería - Barcelona	1:0
05.11.22	Barcelona - Almería	2:0
08.04.15	Barcelona - Almería	4:0
08.11.14	Almería - Barcelona	1:2
02.03.14	Barcelona - Almería	4:1
28.09.13	Almería - Barcelona	0:2

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