Match Info

SPAIN: LaLiga - Round 34

Date: 5 May 2024, Sunday

Location: Campo de Futbol de Vallecas (Madrid)

Referee: Maeso F. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	SuperSport
Australia	Optus Sport
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport
Croatia	Arena Sport
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Max
Greece	Nova Sports
Poland	Canal+ Sport 5
Serbia	Arena Sport
Slovenia	Arena Sport


	Rayo Vallecano		Almería

	1	X	2
	1.57	4	6	Watch
	1.6	4	5.5
	1.58	4.2	6	Watch
	1.59	4.34	5.84
	1.6	4.19	5.96
	1.57	4.2	5.5
	1.64	4.26	5.8	Watch
	1.59	4.15	5.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.59 ↑ (1.59)	4.17 ↑ (4.1)	5.81 ↑ (5.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rayo Vallecano
60.4%

Draw
23.1%

Almería
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

59.8%

23.1%

17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.8%

22.7%

16.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rayo Vallecano has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.6%)

Almería has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Vallecano than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
86.7%	6.7%	6.7%

Rayo Vallecano - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: Rayo Vallecano will win (25 of 29 users predict this - 86.21%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.66% – 98.76%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dimitrievski S. (G) 20. Balliu I. 16. Mumin A. 24. Lejeune F. 3. Chavarria P. 7. Palazon I. 23. Valentin O. (C) 17. Lopez U. 18. Garcia A. 9. Falcao R. 8. Trejo O.	25. Maximiano L. (G) 18. Pubill M. 22. Montes C. 21. Chumi 20. Centelles A. 3. Gonzalez E. 26. Pena M. 12. Leo Baptistao 19. Arribas S. 10. Embarba A. (C) 15. Lozano C.
Substitutes
10. Bebe 34. Camello S. 13. Cardenas D. (G) 15. Crespo M. 19. de Frutos J. 22. de Tomas R. 12. Espino A. 5. Hernandez A. 11. Nteka R. 14. Perez K. 6. Pozo J. 2. Ratiu A.	4. Baba I. 23. Kone I. 24. Langa B. 6. Lopy D. 1. Marino D. (G) 13. Martinez F. (G) 11. Melero G. 29. Milovanovic M. 17. Pozo A. 38. Romero L. 9. Suarez L.
Coaches
Perez I.	Mel P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', Falcao R. 🟨,
30', 0 - 1, Lozano C. ⚽, Embarba A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Palazon I. ↓, de Frutos J. ↑,
59', Falcao R. ↓, Nteka R. ↑,
66', Lopez U. ↓, de Tomas R. ↑,
72', Leo Baptistao ↓, Pozo A. ↑,
75', Lozano C. ↓, Suarez L. ↑,
79', Pena M. 🟨,
80', Garcia A. ↓, Bebe ↑,
80', Balliu I. ↓, Crespo M. ↑,
82', Mumin A. 🟨,
82', Arribas S. ↓, Baba I. ↑,
83', Gonzalez E. ↓, Melero G. ↑,
90+1', Trejo O. 🟨,
90+4', Montes C. 🟨,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 15 and 20 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2).

Almería is Relegated to LaLiga2

Last 5 head-to-head matches Rayo Vallecano won 3.

Recent matches Rayo Vallecano is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Almería is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Rayo Vallecano could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Rayo Vallecano is a favorite.

There will not play in Rayo Vallecano: Ciss P. (Yellow Cards) Mendez D. (Injury)

There will not play in Almería: Radovanovic A. (Muscle Injury) Robertone L. (Yellow Cards) Viera J. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Almería: Suarez L. (Foot Injury)

Last 16 head-to-head matches Rayo Vallecano won 11 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 21-12.

Including matches at home between the teams Rayo Vallecano won 5 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 10-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rayo Vallecano
Spanish LaLiga
28.04.24	Villarreal - Rayo Vallecano	3:0 ✺
20.04.24	Rayo Vallecano - Osasuna	2:1 ✺
13.04.24	Rayo Vallecano - Getafe	0:0 ✺
31.03.24	Celta de Vigo - Rayo Vallecano	0:0 ✺
17.03.24	Rayo Vallecano - Betis	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.6 LWTTW
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga
27.04.24	Almería - Getafe	1:3 ✺
21.04.24	Almería - Villarreal	1:2 ✺
14.04.24	Real Sociedad - Almería	2:2 ✺
30.03.24	Almería - Osasuna	0:3 ✺
17.03.24	Las Palmas - Almería	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.2 LLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
11.08.23	Almería - Rayo Vallecano	0:2
06.02.23	Rayo Vallecano - Almería	2:0
08.10.22	Almería - Rayo Vallecano	3:1
Spanish LaLiga2
02.04.21	Almería - Rayo Vallecano	0:1
08.11.20	Rayo Vallecano - Almería	0:1
13.07.20	Almería - Rayo Vallecano	3:2
21.09.19	Rayo Vallecano - Almería	1:1

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