Match Info

LaLiga - Round 10

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu (Madrid)

Referee: Soto Grado C. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Afghanistan	Asr TV, Meraj Sport, Meraj TV, Solh Sports 1, Tolo TV
Africa	Azam Sports 4, CANAL+ Sport 4, DStv Now, New World Sport 3, StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium, SuperSport GOtv LaLiga, SuperSport LaLiga, SuperSport Maximo 3, ZAP
Albania	SuperSport 1
Andorra	beIN Sports 1
Angola	Z Sports La Liga
Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Armenia	Fast Sports, Setanta Sports 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	Amazon Prime Video, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2
Austria	DAZN 2, DAZN, Sky Go Austria
Azerbaijan	Idman TV, Setanta Sports 2
Bangladesh	Begin
Belarus	Belarus 5
Brazil	Disney+
Bulgaria	Max Sport 4
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, TSN 3, TSN+
Chile	Disney+
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Cuba	Tele Rebelde
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 8, Cytavision Sports 8
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 4, Oneplay
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2, Silk Universal
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN 2 Bar Deutsch, DAZN 2, DAZN Deutsch, Sky Go Germany
Greece	Nova Sports 1
Haiti	Canal+ Sport 1
Hong-kong	M Plus Live, Now Player, NOW Sports 2
Hungary	Spiler2 TV, TV2 Play Premium
India	FanCode, FanCode
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Israel	ONE Sport
Italy	20 Mediaset, DAZN Italia, Infinity+, Italia 1
Japan	DAZN Japan, U-NEXT
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 1, ART Sport 1
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Madagascar	UpTV
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Maldives	ICE Xtra, Medianet
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 4
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mozambique	Startimes Mania
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	SuperSport LaLiga
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
Norway	TV2 Play
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Poland	CANAL+ Sport, Eleven Sports 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 2, Match TV, Okko Sport, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Arena Sport 1
South-africa	SuperSport La Liga, SuperSport Laliga
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN LaLiga 2, DAZN LaLiga, LaLiga TV Bar
Suriname	QN Sports
Sweden	TV4 Fotboll, TV4 Play
Switzerland	Blue Sport 5, Blue Sport 5, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1, MEGOGO Ukraine
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN 2, ESPN App, ESPN Deportes, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2, Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	SCTV 22


	Real Madrid		Barcelona

	1	X	2
	1.83	4.2	3.5	Watch
	1.85	4.45	3.55	Watch
	2	4.38	3.32
	1.93	4.47	3.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.9 ↓ (2.13)	4.38 ↑ (3.87)	3.51 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Real Madrid
50.6%

Draw
22%

Barcelona
27.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.9%

24.7%

30.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

25.1%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Real Madrid has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Real Madrid's performance.

Barcelona has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Madrid than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Real Madrid that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (+3.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
55.1%	14.6%	30.3%

Real Madrid - Barcelona Predictions

Users Predictions: 88 users predict this event. Real will win (votes: 49 - 55.7%). Barcelona will win (votes: 26 - 29.5%). It will Tie (votes: 13 - 14.8%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Real: 45.3% – 66.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 39 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 24 - 61.5%). Barcelona (votes: 14 - 35.9%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 9 - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 8 - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS, 1st Half - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Barcelona (1.92) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH -0.5 - Real (1.82) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

AH +0.75 - Barcelona (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 6.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 46 Selected Experts predict this event. Real (votes: 26 - 56.5%). Barcelona (votes: 18 - 39.1%). Tie (votes: 1 - 2.2%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Courtois T. (G) 8. Valverde F. (C) 3. Eder Militao 24. Huijsen D. 18. Carreras A. 15. Guler A. 14. Tchouameni A. 6. Camavinga E. 7. Vinicius Junior 5. Bellingham J. 10. Mbappe K.	25. Szczesny W. (G) 23. Kounde J. 5. Cubarsi P. 24. Garcia E. 3. Balde A. 8. Pedri 21. de Jong F. (C) 16. Lopez F. 10. Lamine Yamal 7. Torres F. 14. Rashford M.
Substitutes
12. Alexander-Arnold T. 17. Asencio R. 2. Carvajal D. 19. Ceballos D. 21. Diaz B. 9. Endrick 20. Garcia F. 16. Garcia G. 13. Lunin A. (G) 30. Mastantuono F. 23. Mendy F. 11. Rodrygo	33. Aller E. (G) 4. Araujo R. 28. Bardghji R. 22. Bernal M. 17. Casado M. 42. Espart X. 27. Fernandez D. 29. Fernandez T. 31. Kochen D. (G) 18. Martin G. 26. Torrents J.
Coaches
Alonso X.	Sorg M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
22', 1 - 0, Mbappe K. ⚽, Bellingham J. (A),
23', Valverde F. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Lopez F. ⚽, Rashford M. (A),
42', Pedri 🟨,
43', 2 - 1, Bellingham J. ⚽, Eder Militao (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
52', Mbappe K. (Pen),
57', Huijsen D. 🟨,
66', Guler A. ↓, Diaz B. ↑,
72', Valverde F. ↓, Carvajal D. ↑,
72', Vinicius Junior ↓, Rodrygo ↑,
74', Garcia E. ↓, Araujo R. ↑,
74', Torres F. ↓, Casado M. ↑,
84', Cubarsi P. ↓, Bardghji R. ↑,
90', Bellingham J. ↓, Garcia G. ↑,
90+1', Mbappe K. ↓, Ceballos D. ↑,
90+7', Balde A. ↓, Martin G. ↑,
90+9', Lopez F. 🟨,
90+10', Pedri 🟨,
90+11', Eder Militao 🟨,
90+11', Lunin A. 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real won 0.

Real is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Barcelona has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Real may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Barcelona has had a series of home games.

Real is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Real: Alaba D. (Foot Injury) Rudiger A. (Thigh Injury)

There will not play in Barcelona: Garcia J. (Knee Injury) Gavi (Knee Injury) Lewandowski R. (Thigh Injury) Olmo D. (Muscle Injury) Raphinha (Thigh Injury) ter Stegen M. (Back Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Real won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 36:42. (average 1.8:2.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Real won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:26. (average 1.4:2.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League
22.10.25	Real Madrid - Juventus	1:0 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
19.10.25	Getafe - Real Madrid	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Real Madrid - Villarreal	3:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
30.09.25	Kairat - Real Madrid	0:5 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
27.09.25	Atlético Madrid - Real Madrid	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WWWWL
- FC Barcelona
UEFA Champions League
21.10.25	Barcelona - Olympiacos Piraeus	6:1 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
18.10.25	Barcelona - Girona	2:1 ✺
05.10.25	Sevilla - Barcelona	4:1 ✺
UEFA Champions League
01.10.25	Barcelona - Paris Saint-Germain	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
28.09.25	Barcelona - Real Sociedad	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
11.05.25	Barcelona - Real Madrid	4:3
Spanish Copa del Rey
26.04.25	Barcelona - Real Madrid	3:2 ET
Spanish Supercopa
12.01.25	Real Madrid - Barcelona	2:5
Spanish LaLiga
26.10.24	Real Madrid - Barcelona	0:4
Club Friendly
03.08.24	Barcelona - Real Madrid	2:1
Spanish LaLiga
21.04.24	Real Madrid - Barcelona	3:2
Spanish Supercopa
14.01.24	Real Madrid - Barcelona	4:1

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