Match Info

Champions League - League phase - Round 2

Date: 1 October 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys (Barcelona)

Referee: Oliver M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	CANAL+ Sport 2, DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 1, beIN Sports MENA English 1, beIN Sports MENA French 1, TOD
Australia	Stan Sport
Austria	Canal+
Azerbaijan	Ictimai TV
Belgium	Pickx+ Sports 2, Pickx+ Sports 2, Play Sports 1, Play Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping
Bulgaria	BTV Action
Canada	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada
Chile	ESPN Premium
China	iQIYI, QQ Sports, ZhiBo8
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 1, HRT 2, HRTi, MAXtv To Go
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 6, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3+, Viaplay
Europe	Go3 Extra Sports Baltic
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	CANAL+ France, Canal+ Live 1, Free
Germany	Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 3
Hungary	RTL+
Iceland	SÝN Sport 2
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV
Indonesia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Vidio
Ireland	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 253, Sky Sport Calcio, TV8
Kenya	Gotv
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Sooka
Malta	TSN Malta 6, TVM Sport+
Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 2
New-zealand	DAZN New Zealand
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
North-macedonia	TDM Desporto
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Poland	Canal+ Extra 1
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 1, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	RTS 1
Singapore	beIN Sport 1
Slovakia	Kanal A, Voyo
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Variety 3
South-america	ESPN South
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
Thailand	AIS PLAY, beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Turkey	Tabii
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 1
United-kingdom	Amazon Prime Video, Discovery+ App, Discovery+, TNT Sports 4, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	DAZN USA, Paramount+
Uzbekistan	Zor TV
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
Vietnam	ON Plus


	Barcelona		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	1.67	4.5	4.33
	1.72	4.4	4.35
	1.71	4.5	4.5
	1.95	4.11	3.37	Watch
	1.72	4.61	4.61
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.95)	4.42 ↑ (4.11)	4.23 ↑ (3.37)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 1.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Barcelona
55.2%

Draw
21.9%

Paris Saint-Germain
22.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.7%

23.1%

28.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.1%

22.9%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Barcelona has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Barcelona's performance.

Paris Saint-Germain has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Paris Saint-Germain might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barcelona than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Barcelona that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (+5.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Paris Saint-Germain could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
69.5%	20%	10.5%

Barcelona - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Users Predictions: 90 users predict this event. Barcelona will win (votes: 66 - 73.3%). PSG will win (votes: 9 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 15 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Barcelona: 64.2% – 82.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 41 Selected Experts predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 30 - 73.2%). PSG (votes: 4 - 9.8%). Tie (votes: 7 - 17.1%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 6 - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -1.5 - Barcelona (2.70) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

AH +0.5 - PSG (2.22) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - PSG (3.27) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

EH +1 - PSG (2.16) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - PSG (2.18) (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Barcelona (2.15) (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 2nd Half - Barcelona (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC, 1st Half - PSG (1.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5, 2nd Half - Barcelona (2.02) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 56 Selected Experts predict this event. Barcelona (votes: 35 - 62.5%). PSG (votes: 14 - 25%). Tie (votes: 7 - 12.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Szczesny W. (G) 23. Kounde J. 24. Garcia E. 5. Cubarsi P. 18. Martin G. 21. de Jong F. (C) 8. Pedri 10. Lamine Yamal 20. Olmo D. 14. Rashford M. 7. Torres F.	30. Chevalier L. (G) 2. Hakimi A. (C) 6. Zabarnyi I. 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 8. Ruiz F. 17. Vitinha 33. Zaire-Emery W. 49. Mbaye I. 24. Mayulu S. 29. Barcola B.
Substitutes
33. Aller E. (G) 4. Araujo R. 3. Balde A. 28. Bardghji R. 22. Bernal M. 17. Casado M. 15. Christensen A. 27. Fernandez P. 29. Fernandez T. 31. Kochen D. (G) 9. Lewandowski R. 26. Torrents J.	4. Beraldo L. 21. Hernandez L. 41. Jangeal M. 19. Lee Kang-In 89. Marin R. (G) 47. Ndjantou Q. 9. Ramos G. 39. Safonov M. (G)
Coaches
Flick H.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
19', 1 - 0, Torres F. ⚽, Rashford M. (A),
32', de Jong F. 🟨,
38', 1 - 1, Mayulu S. ⚽, Mendes N. (A),
44', Mendes N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', Olmo D. 🟨,
65', Mbaye I. ↓, Hernandez L. ↑,
72', Olmo D. ↓, Casado M. ↑,
72', Rashford M. ↓, Lewandowski R. ↑,
72', Martin G. ↓, Balde A. ↑,
72', Ruiz F. ↓, Ramos G. ↑,
78', Casado M. 🟨,
79', Pedri ↓, Bernal M. ↑,
80', Barcola B. ↓, Ndjantou Q. ↑,
80', Mayulu S. ↓, Lee Kang-In ↑,
86', Garcia E. ↓, Christensen A. ↑,
87', Hakimi A. 🟨,
90', 1 - 2, Ramos G. ⚽, Hakimi A. (A),
90+2', Lamine Yamal 🟨,

Preview

Playing home matches at a different stadium - Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Barcelona won 2.

Barcelona has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

PSG is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

PSG may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Barcelona is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Barcelona: Garcia J. (Knee Injury) Gavi (Knee Injury) Lopez F. (Groin Injury) Raphinha (Thigh Injury) ter Stegen M. (Back Injury)

There will not play in PSG: Dembele O. (Thigh Injury) Doue D. (Calf Injury) Kamara N. (International duty) Kvaratskhelia K. (Muscle Injury) Marquinhos (Thigh Injury)

In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Barcelona won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:24. (average 2.1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Barcelona won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:11. (average 2.3:1.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Barcelona
Spanish LaLiga
28.09.25	Barcelona - Real Sociedad	2:1 ✺
25.09.25	Real Oviedo - Barcelona	1:3 ✺
21.09.25	Barcelona - Getafe	3:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
18.09.25	Newcastle United - Barcelona	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
14.09.25	Barcelona - Valencia	6:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWWWW
- Paris Saint-Germain
French Ligue 1
27.09.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Auxerre	2:0 ✺
22.09.25	Olympique Marseille - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
17.09.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Atalanta	4:0 ✺
French Ligue 1
14.09.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Lens	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Toulouse - Paris Saint-Germain	3:6 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Champions League
16.04.24	Barcelona - Paris Saint-Germain	1:4
10.04.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Barcelona	2:3
10.03.21	Paris Saint-Germain - Barcelona	1:1
16.02.21	Barcelona - Paris Saint-Germain	1:4
08.03.17	Barcelona - Paris Saint-Germain	6:1
14.02.17	Paris Saint-Germain - Barcelona	4:0
21.04.15	Barcelona - Paris Saint-Germain	2:0

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