Match Info

Primera Nacional - Round 21

Date: 17 July 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Fragata Presidente Sarmiento (Isidro Casanova)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Almirante Brown		Estudiantes de Caseros

	1	X	2
	2.65	2.82	2.75	Watch
	2.55	2.65	3.00
	2.62	2.68	2.98	Watch
	2.98	2.6	3.16
	2.72	2.66	3.12	Watch
	2.95	2.45	3.1
	2.72	2.89	2.82	Watch
	2.6	2.65	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.64)	2.68 ↑ (2.6)	2.99 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.50

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Almirante Brown
34.1%

Draw
34.7%

Estudiantes de Caseros
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.7%

35.2%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.4%

36.9%

28.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Almirante Brown has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

Estudiantes de Caseros has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almirante Brown than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estudiantes de Caseros than the current prediction. (-2.4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
20%	70%	10%

Almirante Brown - Estudiantes de Caseros Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Almirante Brown will win (votes: 2 - 20%). CA Estudiantes will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Galvan B. (G) 4. Cardozo E. 2. Levi M. 6. Cabral G. 3. Alegre Rojas G. 5. Gauna S. 8. Villoldo T. 7. Abreliano M. 11. Velazquez J. 10. Pascual L. 9. Martinez E.	1. Lungarzo J. (G) 4. Albarracin M. 2. Benitez J. 6. Caro Nicolas 3. Squie T. 7. Ardiles F. 5. Melo R. 8. Sena F. 11. Acosta E. 10. Correa J. 9. Acosta M.
Substitutes
20. Almada T. 15. Altamirano G. 19. Bazan N. 12. Bottini A. (G) 13. Fernandez R. 17. Ibanez J. 16. Santiago M. 14. Velurtas P. 18. Vera S.	20. Almiron E. 13. Bernardi B. 17. Camacho S. 18. Degregorio B. 14. Dure F. 15. Quinteros F. 16. Silva L. 19. Vera I. 12. Vila F. (G)

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
24', Squie T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Velazquez J. 🟨,
65', Squie T. ↓, Camacho S. ↑,
65', Melo R. ↓, Quinteros F. ↑,
69', Quinteros F. 🟨,
72', Pascual L. ↓, Almada T. ↑,
78', Correa J. ↓, Degregorio B. ↑,
78', Acosta M. ↓, Vera I. ↑,
78', Villoldo T. ↓, Fernandez R. ↑,
82', Cardozo E. ↓, Bazan N. ↑,
82', Gauna S. ↓, Velurtas P. ↑,
86', Alegre Rojas G. 🟨,
88', Vera I. 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera Nacional (Promotion ~ Play Offs: ))

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Almirante Brown won 3.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Recently, Almirante Brown has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Almirante Brown won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.2:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Almirante Brown won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:11. (average 1.3:1.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Almirante Brown - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 34.69%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Almirante Brown
Argentinian Primera Nacional
11.07.26	All Boys - Almirante Brown	1:1 ✺
04.07.26	Almirante Brown - Los Andes	1:0 ✺
21.06.26	Almirante Brown - Mitre	3:1 ✺
14.06.26	Almirante Brown - Godoy Cruz	1:0 ✺
07.06.26	Deportivo Morón - Almirante Brown	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17 TWWWL
- CA Estudiantes de Caseros
Argentinian Primera Nacional
11.07.26	Estudiantes de Caseros - Mitre	3:0 ✺
05.07.26	Estudiantes de Caseros - Racing de Córdoba	1:1 ✺
20.06.26	Ciudad de Bolívar - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:2 ✺
14.06.26	Estudiantes de Caseros - All Boys	2:1 ✺
06.06.26	Los Andes - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 WTWWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
01.03.26	Estudiantes de Caseros - Almirante Brown	0:1
22.06.25	Almirante Brown - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:1
15.02.25	Estudiantes de Caseros - Almirante Brown	5:2
12.03.22	Almirante Brown - Estudiantes de Caseros	1:0
24.07.21	Estudiantes de Caseros - Almirante Brown	1:2
13.03.21	Almirante Brown - Estudiantes de Caseros	2:1
Argentinian Primera B
27.01.19	Almirante Brown - Estudiantes de Caseros	0:2

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