Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group B - Round 9

Date: 10 November 2024, Sunday


	Alpendorada		Guarda FC

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.5	4.8
	1.59	3.65	5
	1.62	3.5	5.04
	1.62	3.64	5.08
	1.69	3.4	4.6
	1.59	3.65	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.69)	3.56 ↑ (3.4)	4.92 ↑ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alpendorada
56.1%

Draw
25.5%

Guarda FC
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

26.7%

19.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.9%

20.4%

25.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alpendorada has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

Guarda FC has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alpendorada than the current prediction. (-15.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Alpendorada that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Guarda FC than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Guarda FC could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Alpendorada - Guarda FC Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45', 0 - 1, Santos S. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
53', 🟥,
90+5', 🟥,

Preview

This time we will watch a game between teams from the middle of a tournament table (ranked 8 and 10 in the zone Relegation).

Recent matches Alpendorada is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Guarda is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Alpendorada is a favorite.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Alpendorada
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
03.11.24	Marco 09 - Alpendorada	0:3 ✺
27.10.24	Alpendorada - Salgueiros 08	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.10.24	Alpendorada - Cinfães	1:2 ET ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
06.10.24	Camacha - Alpendorada	0:0 ✺
29.09.24	Alpendorada - União Lamas	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.3 WLLTT
- Guarda FC
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
03.11.24	Salgueiros 08 - Guarda FC	2:0 ✺
27.10.24	Guarda FC - União Lamas	0:1 ✺
06.10.24	Gondomar - Guarda FC	1:0 ✺
28.09.24	Guarda FC - Marítimo B	3:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.09.24	Guarda FC - Leixões	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLWL

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