Match Info

TURKEY: Turkish Cup - Round 3

Date: 26 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Eryaman Stadium (Ankara)

Referee: Tokail F. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	A Spor
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Sportklub 7
Croatia	SportKlub 7
Montenegro	Sportklub 7
North-macedonia	Sportklub 7
Serbia	SportKlub 7
Slovenia	SportKlub 6
Turkey	A Spor


	Ankaragücü		Alanyaspor

	1	X	2
	5.25	3.8	1.5
	6	4.2	1.5
	5.5	4.2	1.56
	6.02	4.32	1.5	Watch
	6.5	4	1.44
	5.56	4.02	1.59	Watch
	6	4.2	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.83 ↑ (4)	4.11 ↑ (3.5)	1.51 ↓ (1.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ankaragücü
15.9%

Draw
22.6%

Alanyaspor
61.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.2%

26.5%

50.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

22.6%

25.8%

51.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ankaragücü has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ankaragücü's form might have worsened.

Alanyaspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Alanyaspor's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ankaragücü than the current prediction. (+6.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ankaragücü, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alanyaspor than the current prediction. (-9.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alanyaspor, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	0%	90.5%

Ankaragücü - Alanyaspor Predictions

Users Predictions: Alanyaspor will win (19 of 21 users predict this - 90.48%).
Confidence interval (95%): 77.93% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ersu E. (G) 19. Astanakulov S. 5. Coelho D. 30. Kesik M. 90. Simsek M. 6. Turkmen C. 10. Rakoczy M. 23. Guneren A. K. 70. Tepecik E. 7. Owusu 29. Cephas R.	99. Karagoz Y. (G) 17. Janvier N. 20. Aksoy F. 3. Lima N. 29. Balkovec J. 42. Makouta G. 8. Keskin E. 9. Cordova S. 52. Vilhena T. 16. Hwang Ui-Jo 10. Sporar A.
Substitutes
24. Aktas O. 9. Bajic R. 88. Celik O. 4. Cetin M. 16. Cokcalis I. 28. Demir F. (G) 68. Kanik R. E. 3. Pehlivan I. 22. Rotariu D. 21. Tekdemir M.	5. Aliti F. 23. Bayram M. (G) 44. Bilin N. 38. Karademir Y. 43. Kirli T. 4. Toy U. M. 15. Usluoglu A. 2. Yavuz B.
Coaches
Dalci M.	Ugurlu S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Hwang Ui-Jo ↓, Karademir Y. ↑,
46', Cephas R. ↓, Rotariu D. ↑,
46', Ersu E. ↓, Demir F. ↑,
46', Owusu ↓, Kanik R. E. ↑,
48', 0 - 1, Cordova S. ⚽, Makouta G. (A),
62', Tepecik E. ↓, Bajic R. ↑,
62', Kesik M. ↓, Cokcalis I. ↑,
64', Makouta G. 🟨,
66', 1 - 1, Rotariu D. ⚽,
69', Astanakulov S. 🟨,
75', Cordova S. ↓, Usluoglu A. ↑,
75', Balkovec J. ↓, Aliti F. ↑,
86', Janvier N. ↓, Yavuz B. ↑,
90+4', Demir F. 🟨,

Preview

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ankaragücü won 1.

Ankaragücü is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Alanyaspor is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ankaragücü could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Alanyaspor is a favorite.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Ankaragücü won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11:20 (average 1.1:2).

Including matches at home between the teams Ankaragücü won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:8 (average 0.8:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MKE Ankaragücü
Turkish First League
22.02.25	Ankaragücü - Bandırmaspor	4:0 ✺
17.02.25	Sakaryaspor - Ankaragücü	2:2 ✺
13.02.25	Ankaragücü - Fatih Karagümrükspor	0:1 ✺
09.02.25	İstanbulspor - Ankaragücü	1:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
05.02.25	Çaykur Rizespor - Ankaragücü	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 WTLLL
- Alanyaspor
Turkish Super League
23.02.25	Alanyaspor - Adana Demirspor	3:2 ✺
16.02.25	Hatayspor - Alanyaspor	1:0 ✺
09.02.25	Alanyaspor - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
Turkish Cup
06.02.25	Alanyaspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	4:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
02.02.25	Göztepe - Alanyaspor	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
03.05.24	Ankaragücü - Alanyaspor	1:1
09.01.24	Alanyaspor - Ankaragücü	1:1
12.03.23	Ankaragücü - Alanyaspor	2:0
09.09.22	Alanyaspor - Ankaragücü	2:1
15.05.21	Ankaragücü - Alanyaspor	0:1
25.01.21	Alanyaspor - Ankaragücü	4:3
04.07.20	Ankaragücü - Alanyaspor	1:4

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