Match Info

Super Lig - Round 18

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: GAİN Park Stadyumu (Alanya)

Referee: Turkmen M. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Alanyaspor		Fenerbahçe

	1	X	2
	5	4.2	1.56	Watch
	5.59	4.24	1.51	Watch
	5.74	4.32	1.55
	5	3.9	1.53
	5.61	4.37	1.6	Watch
	5.66	4.2	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.43 ↓ (6.43)	4.21 ↑ (4.2)	1.54 ↑ (1.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alanyaspor
17.2%

Draw
22.2%

Fenerbahçe
60.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

14.5%

22.1%

63.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

13.8%

21.1%

66.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alanyaspor has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)

Fenerbahçe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alanyaspor than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fenerbahçe than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fenerbahçe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
3.4%	3.4%	93.1%

Alanyaspor - Fenerbahçe Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Fenerbahçe (2.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Fenerbahçe (1.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Fenerbahçe (1.98) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fenerbahçe will win (27 of 29 users predict this - 93.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.88% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fenerbahçe will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Fenerbahçe (votes: 12 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Taskiran E. (G) 3. Lima N. 5. Aliti F. 50. Akdag U. 94. Hadergjonaj F. 42. Makouta G. 58. Maestro 11. Ruan 7. Karaca E. (C) 22. Ogundu U. 16. Hwang Ui-Jo	31. Ederson (G) 27. Semedo N. 37. Skriniar M. (C) 24. Oosterwolde J. 18. Muldur M. 6. Guendouzi M. 5. Yuksek I. 20. Musaba A. 21. Asensio M. 9. Akturkoglu K. 94. Talisca
Substitutes
20. Aksoy F. 12. Elia M. 27. Kaya I. 18. Mogultay B. 9. Mounie S. 48. Paulo Victor (G) 10. Yalcin G. 2. Yavuz B.	11. Alvarez E. 70. Aydin O. 13. Cetin T. (G) 14. Demir Y. E. 10. Duran J. 28. Elmaz B. 7. Fred 34. Gunok M. (G) 45. Nene D. 4. Soyuncu C.
Coaches
Pereira J.	Tedesco D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
3', 1 - 0, Hadergjonaj F. ⚽, Hwang Ui-Jo (A),
9', 1 - 1, Talisca ⚽,
27', 2 - 1, Makouta G. ⚽, Hadergjonaj F. (A),
28', Karaca E. 🟨,
41', Makouta G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Semedo N. ↓, Demir Y. E. ↑,
52', 2 - 2, Musaba A. ⚽,
62', Akturkoglu K. ↓, Duran J. ↑,
62', Yuksek I. ↓, Fred ↑,
74', Musaba A. ↓, Nene D. ↑,
77', Karaca E. ↓, Kaya I. ↑,
77', Ogundu U. ↓, Yalcin G. ↑,
78', 2 - 3, Talisca ⚽, Asensio M. (A),
87', Hwang Ui-Jo ↓, Elia M. ↑,
87', Akdag U. ↓, Mounie S. ↑,
90+2', Guendouzi M. ↓, Alvarez E. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Alanyaspor won 0.

At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.

Fenerbahçe may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Fenerbahçe is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Alanyaspor: Bruno Viana (Injury) Bulut B. (Knee Injury) Keskin E. (Suspended) Ozdemir Y. (Suspended) Ozyurt B. (Suspended)

There will not play in Fenerbahçe: Alvarez E. (Inactive) Brown A. (Injury) En Nesyri Y. (International duty) Semedo N. (Injury)

There are questionable in Fenerbahçe: Musaba A. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Alanyaspor won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 21:45. (average 1.1:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Alanyaspor won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 7 matches, and goals 12:23. (average 1.2:2.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fenerbahce	7	4	1	2	19:6	13	13
7	Alanyaspor	7	3	3	1	8:6	2	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alanyaspor
Turkish Cup
13.01.26	Alanyaspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
07.01.26	Alanyaspor - Metaloglobus Bucureşti	2:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
21.12.25	Alanyaspor - Fatih Karagümrükspor	2:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
17.12.25	Trabzonspor - Alanyaspor	0:1 ✺
Turkish Super League
13.12.25	Kayserispor - Alanyaspor	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWWWT
- Fenerbahçe
Turkish Cup
14.01.26	Beyoglu Yeni Carsi - Fenerbahçe	0:1 ✺
Turkish Super Cup
10.01.26	Galatasaray - Fenerbahçe	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Fenerbahçe - Samsunspor	2:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
23.12.25	Fenerbahçe - Beşiktaş	1:2 ✺
Turkish Super League
20.12.25	Eyüpspor - Fenerbahçe	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
17.09.25	Fenerbahçe - Alanyaspor	2:2
09.02.25	Alanyaspor - Fenerbahçe	0:2
30.08.24	Fenerbahçe - Alanyaspor	3:0
11.02.24	Fenerbahçe - Alanyaspor	2:2
24.09.23	Alanyaspor - Fenerbahçe	0:1
19.03.23	Alanyaspor - Fenerbahçe	1:3
Club Friendly
07.12.22	Alanyaspor - Fenerbahçe	2:4

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