Match Info

TURKEY: SUPER LIG - ROUND 30

Date: 16 March 2024, Saturday

Location: Eryaman Stadium (Ankara)

Referee: Aydin C. (Tur)

Where to Watch on TV:


Turkey	beIN Sports 1


	Ankaragücü		İstanbul Başakşehir

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.2	2.9	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.95
	2.4	3.25	2.95
	2.65	3.15	3.01
	2.65	3.15	3.01
	2.4	3.2	2.9
	2.62	3.23	2.99	Watch
	2.44	3.05	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↓ (2.75)	3.17 ↓ (3.5)	2.95 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ankaragücü
37.8%

Draw
30%

İstanbul Başakşehir
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.2%

26.9%

38.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.8%

27.2%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ankaragücü has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

İstanbul Başakşehir has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and İstanbul Başakşehir might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ankaragücü than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for İstanbul Başakşehir than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that İstanbul Başakşehir could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	20%	46.7%

Ankaragücü - İstanbul Başakşehir Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Ankaragücü will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Başakşehir will win (votes: 7 - 46.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Başakşehir: 21.5% – 71.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Gungordu B. (G) 70. Kitsiou S. 4. Cankaya A. R. 18. Mujakic N. 3. Uludag A. 30. Cigerci T. 8. Pedrinho 13. Bassogog C. 80. Morutan O. 7. Chatzigiovanis A. 22. Sowe A.	16. Sengezer M. (G) 42. Sahiner O. 65. Gureler H. 3. Opoku J. 6. Lima L. 10. Ozcan B. 4. Ergun O. 23. Turuc D. 8. Aleksic D. (C) 11. Davidson 9. Piatek K.
Substitutes
77. Bilazer H. 29. Cephas R. 28. Demir F. (G) 19. Flips A. 23. Guneren A. K. 35. Karatas K. 32. Macheda F. 11. Rodrigues G. 17. Saponara R. 27. Unyay A.	1. Babacan V. (G) 27. Ba O. 15. Dubois L. 25. Figueiredo J. 7. Gurler S. 26. Ilkhan E. 17. Keny P. P. 14. Pelkas D. 89. Souza 21. Tekdemir M.
Coaches
Belozoglu E.	Atan C.

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Ankaragücü won 0.

Ankaragücü is in poor shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Başakşehir is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 14 head-to-head matches Ankaragücü won 0 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 14-27.

Including matches at home between the teams Ankaragücü won 0 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 6-10.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- MKE Ankaragücü
Turkish Super League
10.03.24	Samsunspor - Ankaragücü	2:1 ✺
02.03.24	Ankaragücü - İstanbulspor	1:1 ✺
Turkish Cup
27.02.24	Ankaragücü - Fenerbahçe	3:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
24.02.24	Kayserispor - Ankaragücü	3:2 ✺
18.02.24	Ankaragücü - Galatasaray	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LTWLL
- İstanbul Başakşehir
Turkish Super League
09.03.24	İstanbul Başakşehir - Antalyaspor	1:0 ✺
03.03.24	İstanbul Başakşehir - Samsunspor	1:0 ✺
Turkish Cup
28.02.24	Trabzonspor - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:0 ✺
Turkish Super League
24.02.24	Gaziantep - İstanbul Başakşehir	0:2 ✺
19.02.24	İstanbul Başakşehir - Kayserispor	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.9 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Turkish Super League
05.11.23	İstanbul Başakşehir - Ankaragücü	3:3
Turkish Cup
25.05.23	Ankaragücü - İstanbul Başakşehir	2:2
04.05.23	İstanbul Başakşehir - Ankaragücü	1:0
Turkish Super League
01.04.23	İstanbul Başakşehir - Ankaragücü	1:0
01.10.22	Ankaragücü - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:2
03.05.21	İstanbul Başakşehir - Ankaragücü	2:1
10.01.21	Ankaragücü - İstanbul Başakşehir	1:2

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